MLB Best Bets Today July 2

What a day on the diamond with 18 games, including three doubleheaders, as Mother Nature was not happy with the East Coast yesterday, raining out games in Philadelphia, Washington D.C., and Queens. We have a real mash-up of starting pitchers all the way across the board today, thanks to the doubleheaders and also some games that had TBD listed as the starter overnight and this morning.

It’s just that time of the year in MLB, I guess, especially with a lot of games that have rain chances thanks to the unstable air of summertime and the moisture all around.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 2:

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs (-164, 8)

8:05 p.m. ET

Tanner Bibee and Shota Imanaga are the listed starters for this one, as the Guardians and Cubs continue their interleague set. Cleveland was no match for Chicago in Game 1, as the game ended 5-2, but it sure seemed like a much more lopsided matchup than that. The Cubs actually had an inning where they had all three outs on the bases, with two pickoffs and a runner thrown out at home on a passed ball.

The Guardians’ paltry hitting against lefties continued, as Matt Boyd threw seven innings with five strikeouts and set down the last 10 Guardians hitters he faced in order. For the season, Cleveland is 29th in wOBA against LHP at .271, barely ahead of the Royals, who are also at .271. For a team that has utilized a platoon advantage more than any other team in the league, these are really disappointing numbers. Guys like Lane Thomas (.217 wOBA, 35 wRC+) and David Fry (.161 wOBA, -4 wRC+) are killing this team against southpaws. Ironically, in the small sample sizes, Kyle Manzardo is second in wOBA and wRC+ in that split, but manager Stephen Vogt is, to a fault, committed to playing these platoon advantages.

Imanaga has a 2.54 ERA with a 4.32 xERA and a 4.33 FIP for the season. His K% is down significantly and his BB% is up, hence the high xERA and FIP. But, he’s still been plenty effective at minimizing hard contact. Imanaga threw five shutout, one-hit innings against the Cardinals last time out in his return from the IL. I’d expect him to pitch well against Cleveland.

Bibee has actually been pretty good lately for the Guardians, but I’ve watched a lot of their games and his starts and he absolutely has the tendency to nibble against good lineups. He’ll get into very deep counts and he’s a very emotional guy on the mound. This Cubs lineup, which is third in wRC+ against righties with a 9.2% BB% and just a 19.9% K% is a tough one to navigate.

Bibee also really struggles outside of Cleveland. He’s allowed 12 of his 15 homers on the road this season and his wOBA against is nearly 100 points higher. His SLG against is nearly 170 points higher. This was true back in 2023 as well. He was actually better on the road in 2024, but I think it’s still a thing, especially with his emotions on his sleeve like I mentioned.

I’ll take the Cubs 1st 5 run line in this one, as I have tremendously low expectations for Cleveland in this matchup.

Pick: Cubs 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-115)

Houston Astros (-266, 10.5) at Colorado Rockies

8:40 p.m. ET

What a disaster Astros -1.5 was yesterday, as Houston led 6-1 early, decided not to score again, and then Josh Hader gave up a solo homer in the ninth inning for a 6-5 decision. I’ll look to fade the Rockies again today, but do so in an alternative way.

Hunter Brown gets the ball for Houston in the midst of a simply stellar season. In a world without Tarik Skubal, Brown would be one of the two favorites for the Cy Young Award alongside Garrett Crochet. He enters this start with a 1.74 ERA, 2.84 xERA, and a 2.69 FIP over his 98 innings of work. In those 98 innings, Brown has 118 strikeouts, as he’s bumped his K% all the way up to 32.1% this season.

Coors Field can be a really tough place for pitchers because the lack of resistance on the ball can cut down on movement. For Brown, though, nearly 60% of his pitches are four-seam fastballs or sinkers. His velocity is his biggest weapon in that regard, sitting about 97 with the four-seam and 96 with the sinker. The Rockies have the fourth-highest Whiff Rate on pitches of 96+ mph. The Mariners are first, White Sox second, and Athletics third. Brown had nine strikeouts over six innings against Chicago, eight over six innings against the A’s, and three against the Mariners, but that was just his second start of the season. For what it’s worth, he threw six shutout innings in that one.

I’ll take Over 6.5 Strikeouts here and pay the juice at -130. Colorado has the highest K% in the league against RHP at 27%, second-highest K% at home at 25.3%, and highest K% in the league overall.

Pick: Hunter Brown (HOU) Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners (-187, 7)

9:40 p.m. ET

The Royals came away with a 6-3 decision yesterday and face underdog odds again today. Rookie southpaw Noah Cameron gets the call for KC and Seattle will counter with Logan Gilbert, who is making his third start since returning from the IL.

The 25-year-old Cameron has been a really good story thus far with a 2.79 ERA, but I think the good fortunes are starting to come to an end. We’ll start with this – Cameron has that 2.79 ERA, but a 3.63 xERA, 4.17 FIP, and a 4.39 xFIP. SIERA, which is a really good estimator of future ERA, has him at 4.56. Cameron only has an 18.6% K% and he only has six punchouts in his last two starts with SwStr% of 6.8% and 6.0%. His Chase Rate in those two starts has been 13.2% and 15%.

He’s likely to get a few more swings and misses against a Mariners lineup that generates a bit of wind energy. But, the Mariners are ninth in wOBA and seventh in wRC+ against lefties on the season. That’s even with a 25.3% K%, so they are extremely dangerous when they put balls in play.

Cameron has a .258 wOBA against with a .310 xwOBA. His 82.6% LOB% has limited sustainability with his low K% and his .197 BABIP is going to go up as we go along. Statcast data has him down for a .234 BA, which is still solid, but the Regression Monster is absolutely lurking here with a 27th percentile Chase% and below average BB% and Hard Hit% marks.

I’ll trust the Mariners to perform well here in a matchup that should suit them nicely.

Pick: Noah Cameron (KC) Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+120)

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (-148, 8.5)

9:40 p.m. ET

The Giants and Diamondbacks come together for NL West action, as San Francisco has dropped eight of nine and has really made things difficult for themselves in the Wild Card race. Landen Roupp and Merrill Kelly are the listed starters here, as the D-Backs took down Game 1 last night by an 8-2 count.

While Kelly has a 21/5 K/BB ratio over his last three starts against the Padres, Rockies, and Marlins, he has allowed 12 runs on 19 hits in his last 16 innings of work. He has a 3.49 ERA and a 3.33 FIP for the season, but he has allowed 4+ runs in four of his last seven starts. In that span, he has a 44.3% Hard Hit% allowed and just allowed three Barrels in his last start against Miami.

The Giants offense is puttering along, but they’ve certainly seen a lot of Kelly and he doesn’t seem terribly sharp thus far. So, that’s one side of the equation, but there are also compelling reasons to go against Roupp as well. The young right-hander has been nails at home with a 1.85 ERA over 34 innings, but the road has been a different story. He owns a 4.56 ERA in 47.1 innings with a .276/.353/.438 slash against and a .346 wOBA against. He’s given up all seven of his homers on the road. And, in fact, he’s given up 31 runs on 53 hits, but only 24 have been earned.

Roupp also has a 10% BB% on the road thus far. Those road numbers even include 5.1 innings of zero earned runs last time out against the lowly White Sox, so things were even worse before facing one of the league’s weaker offenses. Arizona is picking it back up a bit again with a .345 wOBA and a 119 wRC+ over the last 14 days, which ranks sixth in wOBA and seventh in wRC+.

Pick: Giants/Diamondbacks 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-110)