MLB Best Bets Today July 24:
Another day on the diamond has arrived and one that features quite a few early games. Of today’s 16 games, four of them have morning starts for us out west and three more have lunchtime starts. We also have a doubleheader. That means a lot of action during the heat of the day. We’ll see if that has an impact on offense or not. We do have some pitchers making their first starts of the second half and some making their second, so that may be a good handicapping angle.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for July 24:
Baltimore Orioles (-135, 8) at Miami Marlins
6:40 p.m. ET
Chayce McDermott makes his MLB debut for the Orioles today as they take on Edward Cabrera and the Marlins. My focus here is on Cabrera and a really tough matchup against Baltimore. This will be the fourth start for Cabrera since returning from a long IL stint. In those three starts, he’s gone 4.2, 3.1, and 3.2 innings. He gave up seven runs in one start and two in each of the other two, but he’s just not a guy capable of working deep into games.
He’s topped out at 82 pitches in those three starts and might get a longer leash today, but he also has a much more difficult assignment against the O’s. His three starts have been against the White Sox, Reds, and Mets.
With an Outs Recorded line of 14.5, Cabrera hasn’t met that since his second start of the season. Baltimore has been a top-10 offense against righties basically all season long, including the last 30 days. They have a .399 wOBA with a 162 wRC+ against righties over the last seven days and a BB% of nearly 10%.
Pick: Edward Cabrera Under 14.5 Outs (+125)
San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals (-115, 8.5)
6:45 p.m. ET
Matt Waldron and Mitchell Parker are the slated starters for this one in D.C. We’ve seen a flipped favorite scenario here, as influential bettors took a nice position on the Nats around the time I started writing. Personally, I don’t see it. Parker’s last start lasted two-thirds of an inning, as he allowed five runs on three hits and faced just seven batters back on July 13. That means that he has faced seven batters since his start prior back on July 8.
I’m sure the youngster could use the break, but my opinion is that it will be tough for him to be as sharp as he needs to be. He’s not a big strikeout guy with 76 in 92.1 innings, so it all comes down to command and location. Pitch execution after throwing just some side sessions and bullpens is hardly a given, especially against a Padres lineup that ranks fourth in wOBA against lefties over the last 30 days.
The knuckleballer Waldron gave up one run on six hits with five strikeouts and zero walks against a Cleveland lineup that very much looked befuddled by the rarely-seen pitch. He’s got a 3.59 ERA with a 3.72 FIP in his 112.2 innings of work. The Nationals did get a look at him on June 24, as Waldron allowed two runs on five hits with an 8/2 K/BB ratio.
I think Waldron needed the break himself, as he allowed 11 runs over his previous three starts, but shut Cleveland down. I like where he’s at right now and I worry about Parker, who hasn’t started in 11 days and gets a tough first assignment. The Padres pen is also in good shape here and I was thoroughly impressed watching them in the opening series against Cleveland. It seems like everybody throws hard and the Nationals have not seen a lot of premier velo this season.
Pick: Padres -105
