MLB Best Bets Today June 5
There are more night games than day games on the Wednesday MLB card, but there are a lot of weather conditions with some unstable atmospheres and chances for rain in the Midwest and along the East Coast. We’ll see if all of tonight’s games go off without a hitch, but you may still want to consider those factors in your handicapping of the card.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for June 5:
San Diego Padres (-162, 8) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
Dylan Cease and Jose Soriano are the listed starters for this one at The Big A, as interleague neighbors battle it out. My play here is a bet on Cease, who has a 6.23 ERA over his last four starts, but a 3.73 FIP and a 3.15 xFIP. He’s run a .377 BABIP against and a 64.4% LOB% in those outings, but he still has a 27/5 K/BB ratio and has only allowed a 32.3% Hard Hit%. He’s also stepping down in class in a big way here against an Angels bunch with a 37 wRC+ over the last week and a 60 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
The Padres, meanwhile, are a top-10 offense in both sample sizes and have certainly been a much stronger offense since Luis Arraez arrived on the scene. I really like the back-end of this bullpen as well and most of those guys are well-rested heading into this game.
Soriano has thrown the ball well and been a real nice surprise for the Angels with a 3.86 ERA and a 3.89 FIP, but he’s allowed four runs four times over his last seven starts and has given up a ton of hard contact with a 9.2% Barrel% and a 46.6% Hard Hit%. He actually has a 49.1% Hard Hit% over his last seven starts, so he’s been getting hit pretty hard and has to rely on batted ball variance for his success. He’s not going to be able to rack up a lot of strikeouts against the Padres and I could also see them drawing some walks against him as well.
With a lot of positive regression indicators for Cease and Soriano worries, I think the Padres can win this one by two or more tonight.
Pick: Padres Run Line -1.5 (+110)
