MLB Best Bets Today October 16:
The ALCS takes a break on Wednesday, while the NLCS gets going once again. The series has shifted to New York, where the Mets will feel right at home in Queens and the Dodgers are in Eastern Time for the first time in about a month.
Walker Buehler and Luis Severino will be the ones to start this pivotal Game 3, as the series is tied 1-1 and this is a key swing game. Teams that win Game 3 to go up 2-1 are 106-45 in the series per WhoWins.com, so this one is definitely big, as that’s a 70.2% win rate. Teams in this round that go up 2-1 are 44-16, so 73.3%.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 16:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-118, 7.5) at New York Mets
8:08 p.m. ET (FOX)
Opposing groups with influence have been kicking this line back and forth, as we’ve seen both the Mets and Dodgers favored. The Dodgers turn to Buehler in this one after an uninspiring start in the NLDS. He went five innings and allowed six runs on seven hits. All six runs came in one inning, but the bigger thing to me is that he didn’t strike out any of the 24 batters that he faced. That leaves very little margin for error when you can’t generate swings and misses.
It will be a cool evening in Queens, so that may help him. He gave up 16 homers in just 75.1 innings of work during the regular season. His 18.8% HR/FB% was the fourth-highest of any pitcher with at least 70 innings pitched. Overall, Buehler had a 5.38 ERA with a 4.68 xERA and a 5.54 FIP over 16 starts.
Buehler had eight whiffs in 39 swings and really settled down late, as he didn’t allow a single hard-hit ball in the air after the second inning. That does seem like a positive sign for the Dodgers heading into this game, though the damage had already been done.
Severino has allowed seven runs on 14 hits in 12 innings here in the postseason. He has only walked two of the 51 batters that he has faced, which is a good sign after posting a 7.9% BB% in the regular season. That’s a good number, as it was better than the league average, but he also faces a very patient Dodgers lineup that doesn’t chase a whole lot. Severino has 10 strikeouts in the playoffs thus far for a 19.6% K%.
There should be a lot of balls in play tonight. The hitting conditions aren’t ideal with temperatures in the 50s and the wind blowing in from LF. I think we do get run-scoring opportunities here. Whether or not the teams cash in is up to the BABIP gods. The Dodgers bullpen has a 3.15 ERA with 12 runs allowed on 27 hits, but they’ve walked 13 guys. The Mets have a 3.82 ERA with 17 runs allowed on 30 hits in 35.1 innings, but they’ve walked 20 guys.
I’ll take my chances with the Over 7.5 here. I think we get traffic. I think we get plate appearances with runners in scoring position. I don’t know that we’ll get home runs and the playoff pitching/run environment scares me a bit in that regard, but we have two low-strikeout starters and we’ve already seen 25 walks drawn by the two teams through two games. There were 21 at bats with RISP (so not counting walks) last game. I could see something similar tonight.
Pick: Dodgers/Mets Over 7.5 (-112)
