MLB Best Bets Today October 2:
Three Unders, three underdogs, two shutouts, and a whole lot of strikeouts. That’s your short and sweet summary of what happened on Day 1 of the MLB Playoffs, as the Royals, Tigers, and Mets all won at plus prices and the Padres took care of business as the biggest favorite on the slate.
Teams to win Game 1 in the current Wild Card era are 8-0 in the series and seven of those series have ended in two-game sweeps. That would seem to be a good sign for last night’s winners and they’ll have the chance to finish things off today.
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We’ve got four games and all day baseball ranging from 2:30 p.m. ET with the Tigers and Astros on through the Braves and Padres at 8:30 p.m. Like yesterday, I’ll take a look at every game and share favorite picks where applicable.
SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Here are the MLB best bets today for October 2:
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros (-180, 7.5)
2:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
The tandem of Tyler Holton and Reese Olson is a big underdog against Hunter Brown, as the Astros look to keep their season alive and the Tigers look for a matchup with the AL Central rival Cleveland Guardians. The Tigers survived a ninth-inning scare as Beau Brieske saved the day after Jason Foley made a mess of things. The Astros gave Foley an out with a very ill-advised sacrifice bunt and Brieske got out of it because a Jason Heyward missile happened to find Spencer Torkelson’s glove at first.
Tarik Skubal was unhittable and the Tigers won the game that they really needed to in order to have a chance. But, I will say that Holton has been a remarkably valuable piece for them this season. He’s got a 2.19 ERA with a 2.75 xERA and a 3.17 FIP in 94.1 innings. He’s made nine starts and 66 total appearances. His longest start was three innings, but I think the Tigers will look for two here.
Holton had an 0.83 ERA over 43.1 innings in the second half with a .150/.183/.252 slash against and a .191 wOBA. He also bumped up his K% to a very strong 24.7% and cut his BB% down to 3.9%. As a starter, he allowed a .190/.227/.302 slash with a .232 wOBA in 17 innings of work. He struck out 15, walked three, and allowed three homers out of 66 batters. Holton actually appeared yesterday and threw two pitches to get an out.
Olson recently returned from an IL stint with three appearances right before the end of the regular season. He allowed seven runs on nine hits in 9.1 innings of work. For the season, he had a 3.53 ERA with a 3.17 FIP in 112.1 innings, so this is really a question of how sharp he is and is going to be.
Brown wrapped up the season with a 3.49 ERA, 3.27 xERA, and a 3.58 FIP, but that only tells part of the story. He had a 7.71 ERA with a 5.52 FIP through his first 37.1 innings of the season. After that, he hung a 2.31 ERA with a 3.04 FIP over the final 132.2 innings with over a strikeout per frame and elite contact management numbers. He allowed a 27.3% Hard Hit% and a 4.5% Barrel% in that span.
All of that to say no play from me. I lean Under 7.5 in this one, but I’m not sure how Olson looks, as he was shaky in his final three appearances and now the lights are brighter and the stage is bigger. Tigers Under 1.5 Runs for the 1st 5 is a little too juicy at -135. I could see a scenario where the Astros go Over 2.5 in the 1st 5, as you’re likely to get three Olson innings in that mix. That’s probably my strongest lean.
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles (-155, 7.5)
4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Veteran hurlers Seth Lugo and Zach Eflin will square off in this one. Yesterday’s game featured masterpieces from both Cole Ragans and Corbin Burnes. The Royals won 1-0 behind six scoreless from Ragans with eight strikeouts and the Orioles got eight innings in 84 pitches from Burnes, who only had three strikeouts, but pounded the zone and kept the Royals at bay. The game only featured 233 pitches total and three Royals relievers accounted for 53 of them, as the starters combined for 164 over 14 innings of work.
I’m a little surprised to see how aggressive both offenses were in this one. Ragans had had issues throwing strikes for a while, but he threw 60 in 80 pitches yesterday. The Orioles were swinging away, as Ragans had the 20 balls and only 11 called strikes. I’m not sure that was a great strategy by them, as my Over 2.5 Walks lost and they had five hits for the game.
This is a very different pitching matchup because neither Lugo nor Eflin is overpowering. Eflin only had 134 strikeouts in 165.1 innings and Lugo had 181 in 206.2 innings with just a 9.5% SwStr%. In fact, since the All-Star Break, Lugo has only had three starts with a SwStr% over 9.7% and one was a two-inning tune-up against the Braves to stay on his turn in the rotation heading into the postseason.
If we look exclusively at Eflin with the O’s, he had a 10.6% SwStr% in nine starts and a 2.60 ERA with a 3.94 FIP. He gave up eight homers and at least one in seven of his nine outings. He allowed a 9% Barrel% and nine Barrels in his last four starts. There were some clear negative regression signs in the profile for him. The Royals are a very aggressive offense, so command is important and Eflin’s command late in the season has been a bit worrisome.
The Orioles were third in fly ball percentage this season. The Royals were fourth. Hopefully the ball carries a little better today, as there were a few balls that might have left the yard on a different day. KC also had an elite infield defense, but a merely average outfield defense by Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric.
I think we could get the offense today that we didn’t get yesterday.
Pick: Royals/Orioles Over 7.5 (-102)
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers (-120, 7.5)
7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Mets took Game 1 by an 8-4 count in the only game that went Over the total yesterday. Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are the listed hurlers here. As I said today on The Morning Line and in The VSiN Daily newsletter, I’m surprised that the Brewers used Aaron Civale in relief last night. To me, he’s a better option in this start and for the composition of this Brewers team.
Montas is a ground ball guy with iffy control. Civale will give up the long ball, which is probably what Milwaukee is protecting against, but Montas has walked at least two batters in all but one of his starts dating back to August 8. He, too, gave up 24 homers, which is a lot for a ground ball guy. The Brewers have a better outfield defense than infield defense, though both are quite solid. The OF was elite. The IF was not elite, but above average.
Over his 11 starts as a Brewer, Montas has allowed a 43.9% Hard Hit% and a 10.1% Barrel%. I really don’t like those numbers and just don’t like the overall makeup.
Manaea did not fare well against the Brewers last time out and he’s a guy that will give up some runs himself. He had a 3.47 ERA with a 3.83 FIP in 181.1 innings this season, but he’s allowed at least three runs in seven of his last 10 starts. However, in those last 10 starts, he’s allowed a 33.5% Hard Hit% and a 7% Barrel%. He’s much better in the contact management department than Montas, but ran on the wrong side of some batted ball variance and sequencing luck.
The Mets got to give many of their primary relievers a break after fighting and clawing for a playoff spot for the last week. I think that was huge, as Jose Butto threw two innings and Ryne Stanek cleaned up the ninth. The Brewers tried to use one of theirs in the middle innings and Joel Payamps was awful. So was Aaron Ashby.
Frankly, I’d have used Jared Koenig as an opener here and tried to get the lead and play from in front. I think Montas is a mistake. I’ll take my chances with the Mets as a result.
Pick: Mets +100
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres (-118, 6.5)
8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The Braves absolutely looked like a team that played two playoff games on Monday and then flew to San Diego on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Michael King was dealing and I don’t want to diminish what he did, but Atlanta was very much up against it on Tuesday. They sure look to have a better chance here with Max Fried against Joe Musgrove and some money coming in on the Braves.
It has been a weird season for Musgrove and I understand why the market is against him a bit, as he has a 3.88 ERA with a 4.34 xERA. He’s only made 19 starts over 99.2 innings after making 17 starts over 97.1 innings last season. However, he owns a 2.15 ERA with a 2.59 FIP since coming back on August 12. He allowed two runs on 12 hits in his first 18.1 innings with 23 strikeouts against one walk.
I will also grant that he allowed a lot of hard contact over those final nine starts with a 42.2% Hard Hit% and a 9.4% Barrel%. He also had a 57/8 K/BB ratio and pitches in a very forgiving park. He has a career 3.12 ERA in 308.1 innings at Petco Park since joining the Padres for the 2021 season. He has a 27% K% in that span.
I talked yesterday in the handicap of King vs. the Braves about Atlanta’s ongoing issues with RHP and their high K%. The same applies today to Musgrove, who maybe doesn’t have the same level of swing-and-miss stuff, but he doesn’t hurt himself with walks and had a 12.5% SwStr% this season, his best since 2021. For what it’s worth, King’s was 12% this season.
A lot of pressure is on the shoulders of Fried here. He was good again this season, likely his last with the Braves, as he posted a 3.25 ERA with a 3.64 xERA and a 3.33 FIP over 29 starts and 174.1 innings. He’s also been throwing the ball pretty well heading into the postseason, especially in the strikeout department. He had a 2.14 ERA in 33.2 September innings with a 36/7 K/BB ratio.
But, in the end, I just don’t think the Braves do much with Musgrove here and I love this San Diego bullpen and its tremendous upside in the playoff format with a bunch of dudes who throw hard. The Braves have also had to really rely heavily on their guys while chasing down a spot. The Padres didn’t really have to use anybody over the last couple days of the season.
Pick: Padres -118
