MLB Best Bets Today September 11:
Another day on the diamond, another 15 games closer to the finish line. Action starts at lunchtime and runs late into the night with baseball all day to get through the middle of the week. Like we’ve seen a lot of late, there are a lot of big favorites on the board and they will only get bigger as the games increase in magnitude for the playoff contenders.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Top MLB Resources:
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 11:
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants (-142, 7)
9:45 p.m. ET
I’ve spent a lot of time looking to go against Colin Rea in the second half, but I’m going to go in the opposite direction today in the game between the Brewers and Giants. Hopefully this won’t be the day that Rea’s regression hits, but the Giants are 27th with a .270 wOBA over the last 30 days and rank 26th in wRC+ at 80. They are batting .214/.273/.370 in that span with a 29.2% K%.
Rea, to his credit, has over a strikeout per inning in the second half to go with his 3.60 ERA and 4.75 FIP. This is a good ballpark for being a pitch-to-contact, fly ball guy. So, I don’t think this is a bad setup for him.
I don’t love the setup here for Blake Snell. He’s been excellent in the second half, but he’s also had some Snellian moments. He walked six Mariners over three innings on August 24. He allowed two runs, two hits, and two walks over eight batters in his last start before exiting after one inning. It took him 42 pitches and the defense didn’t help him, but those are the only eight batters he’s faced in the last 11 days.
The Brewers have been one of baseball’s best at drawing walks all season long. Patient teams are highly problematic for Snell. I think the Brewers can put some things together here. Their offense has struggled with balls in play thanks to all the deep counts, but they have a 10.3% BB% in the last 30 days and are one of 15 teams with a SLG over .400.
The Brewers pen is in good shape, so I’m good with +120 for the game, but I also like the Brewers 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 at +105.
Picks: Brewers +120; Brewers 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 (+105)
