MLB Best Bets Today September 17
Key Highlights:
- Orioles vs. White Sox Prediction
- Padres vs. Mets Pick
- Marlins vs. Rockies Prediction
For the first time in a long time, we have multiple weather concerns on the MLB card. Most of the games with some rain possibilities are not at risk of getting postponed, however there could be some late starts or maybe an early-inning delay, which can throw the starting pitchers off or take them out of the game entirely. Keep that in mind when attacking the player prop markets.
As far as today’s schedule, we’ve got 15 games and, as always, there are some getaway day games on Wednesday. Still, the majority of the card takes place at night and so those pressed for time in the morning and early afternoon will be able to handicap the card as time permits.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 17:
Orioles (-126, 8.5) vs. White Sox Prediction
2:10 p.m. ET
Sorry for including an early game here, but I do like the Orioles quite a bit against the White Sox, so I wanted to have it in the article. Tyler Wells gets the call for Baltimore and it will be Martin Perez for the White Sox.
Look, the reality here is that Perez is getting very lucky on batted balls as a whole. The veteran southpaw has allowed a 16.1% Barrel% since returning from injury in mid-August. All of those Barrels have only led to four homers against in his 32.1 innings of work. Today he draws an Orioles lineup that is sixth in wOBA against LHP over the last 14 days and it’s a day game with a little bit more carry to the baseball.
Perez has a 3.34 ERA with a 4.20 FIP and a 4.69 xFIP in that span and he’s living off of a .191 BABIP against. He only has an 18.9% K% in that time and a 7.1% SwStr%. The Orioles’ problem against LHP for the season as a whole has been swinging and missing. That shouldn’t be the case here.
Wells has looked good in two starts since returning to the bigs. The oft-injured righty has allowed just three runs over 11.2 innings with a 10/1 K/BB ratio. He also threw the ball very well in the minors during his rehab outings with a 2.49 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning over 25.1 frames.
The 6-foot-8 Wells is a different type of look for a team with his short Extension and high arm angle. I think it could be tough for the White Sox to pick up with a guy who has only made five MLB starts over the last two seasons.
Chicago has dropped five in a row and the Orioles are trying to end a lost season on a high note, so I think they’ll still be engaged for this getaway day game affair.
Pick: Orioles -126
Padres vs. Mets (-126, 7.5) Prediction
7:10 p.m. ET
Nick Pivetta and David Peterson are the listed starters for Game 2 of this huge series between the Padres and Mets. New York drew first blood last night with an 8-3 win, as they jumped all over Michael King in the first two innings and cruised to victory.
Peterson has been riding the struggle bus to work lately, as he has allowed 30 runs over his last 41.1 innings of work. Since the start of August, Peterson owns a 6.53 ERA. He does have a 3.20 FIP in that span, so it hasn’t been as bad as the traditional ERA metric would suggest, however he has given up a 47.1% Hard Hit% in that span. His BB% is over 10% and when you pair that with a .362 BABIP and an inability to get out of jams, you get what you get.
Pivetta remains solid this season and I truly love all the hard throwers in the San Diego bullpen. Of course one of them, Bradgley Rodriguez, hit Francisco Alvarez yesterday with a 100 mph pitch and it really didn’t look good for the Mets backstop. He seems to have avoided injury, but you wonder if he’ll get today off since he’s now dealing with that, along with the other injuries that he is playing through. Peterson has a career 3.74 ERA throwing to Alvarez with 1.93 K/BB ratio.
Anyway, back to Pivetta, who has found a home in San Diego. And the tutelage of Ruben Niebla coupled with better confidence and execution, have led Pivetta to also post a 3.41 ERA on the road. Obviously he’s been better at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, but he’s been very serviceable, if not very good, on the road. He’s also in the midst of a terrific second half with a 2.47 ERA and just a .227 wOBA against.
I’ll take a shot with the Padres at a plus price here. If you’re going to lose, lose by margin so that your better relief arms get a day off. And the way that Peterson hasn’t been able to get out of tough innings in the second half is a good sign for San Diego in a game that means a lot.
Pick: Padres +104
Marlins (-162, 10.5) at Rockies Pick
8:40 p.m. ET
One of the pitchers I was most looking forward to watching this season was Ryan Weathers. The Miami left-hander felt like a huge breakout candidate to me, but, unfortunately, as has been the case throughout his career, he got hurt and missed a ton of time. Weathers just came back during the last turn through the rotation and faced off against the Nationals. While he only had four strikeouts, he did go five innings on just 68 pitches. I’d expect him to be around 75 or 80 here, as the Marlins want him to end the season on a high note.
Weathers had a 19.1% SwStr% in that start. The Nationals were able to put some two-strike balls in play that lowered his K%, but it was a very encouraging start in a lot of ways. I’d expect another encouraging one here against a Rockies lineup that has a K% over 38% against LHP in the last 14 days. Furthermore, the Rockies as a team have a 27.3% K% as a team over the last 30 days.
Weathers has really good stuff and added velocity coming into this season, so even though he’s pitching in Colorado where the ball doesn’t move as much, he should still have that velo to rely on. Also, for a guy likely on a pretty strict pitch count, the fact that the Rockies have walked just 5.5% of the time over the last 30 days is good. It should increase his pitch efficiency, thus giving him more chances to rack up punchies. At a plus-money price, I can’t pass here.
Pick: Ryan Weathers (MIA) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+122)
