MLB Best Bets Today September 4:
Wednesdays typically feature at least three or four day games, but we only have one to get through the Hump Day blues. Is it still a Hump Day on a shortened holiday week? While those aren’t the hard-hitting questions we normally try to answer here at VSiN, perhaps it is one that needs a little more discussion.
Anyway, there is one day game at 3:07 p.m. and the rest are night games as the playoff picture keeps shuffling around and teams try to navigate the last four weeks of the season. By the way, Orioles -6.5 at DraftKings is +401 if you’re so inclined. It goes as high as -7.5 at +556.
Top MLB Resources:
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 4:
Minnesota Twins (-112, 8) at Tampa Bay Rays
6:50 p.m. ET
We have quite the interesting game here, as we sort of have Opener vs. Opener. The Twins will send Ronny Henriquez out first and he’ll be followed by Louie Varland in some capacity. The Rays will send out Cole Sulser and likely Tyler Alexander. Sulser did throw 48 pitches over 2.2 innings in his last appearance, so this is more of a tandem/piggyback for the Rays than a straight opener situation like it is for the Twins.
Henriquez is a little dude with a big arm, listed at 5-foot-10 and 155. He’s allowed three runs on 10 hits in 11 innings with a 10/3 K/BB ratio and has eight scoreless outings out of nine appearances. He allowed all three runs in his only back-to-back appearance of the year. He’s on a day rest in this one.
Varland has allowed six runs on 16 hits in 10.2 innings over two starts this month at the MLB level, but he did go five solid innings with nine strikeouts in his last Triple-A tune-up before the recall. Since August 1, the Rays are 29th in wOBA at .275 and have a 27.1% K%. Slap a platoon split against righties on there and they are 29th with a .275 wOBA and a 26.8% K%. So, they’ve been bad offensively no matter what.
The Twins are 11th in wOBA against RHP in that span and start with one in Sulser, the 34-year-old journeyman who was just recalled from the minors. He had good minor league numbers in a relief role, but it is Minnesota vs. Alexander that I’m looking at here. He comes in with a 5.48 ERA, 5.25 xERA, and a 5.36 FIP in 85.1 innings. The Twins are well-versed in the former Tiger’s arsenal and he’s allowed 11 runs on 15 hits in his last 14.1 innings of work.
I’ll take my chances with the better team playing better with the better pitching setup.
Pick: Twins -112
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-120, 7.5)
7:40 p.m. ET
The Cardinals continue to battle on the fringes of the NL Wild Card chase and they’ll send out ace Sonny Gray for tonight’s game against Colin Rea and the Brewers. As you know, Rea is a guy that I’ve been trying to fade a lot over the last few weeks and I’m going to look to do it again here today.
Rea has allowed 15 runs over his last four starts and that includes seven shutout innings against the Guardians back on August 18. He’s allowed four runs in each of his last two starts and four homers in that span. He allowed four homers in the start against the Dodgers, so he’s given up eight homers in his last four starts. The command profile is starting to dip. He’s allowing more hard contact. This is also the most innings he’s pitched at the MLB level by far, so I’m not surprised.
His 3.70 ERA comes with a 4.95 xERA and a 4.60 FIP over 146 innings of work, so he’s been a regression candidate for quite some time, especially with a high LOB% and a low K%.
Gray comes in with a 3.96 ERA, 3.92 xERA, and a 3.38 FIP in 147.2 innings of work. What I love the most about him in this particular matchup is that he has a 30% K% against a 6% BB%. The Brewers work a lot of deep counts and draw a lot of walks, but getting two strikes against Gray has been problematic and he doesn’t issue many free passes. In fact, this is the best season of Gray’s career from a BB% standpoint.
Opponents are batting .116/.167/.177 with two strikes against Gray. The Brewers have the most two-strike plate appearances with 2959 and the fifth-highest OPS, so they’ve done well in that split, but Gray neutralizes that.
The full game is Cardinals +100. The 1st 5 is Cardinals -120. I’ll take my chances that they get a lead as expected and the bullpen is able to hold it.
Pick: Cardinals +100
