MLB Best Bets Today September 30
The most stressful time of the baseball season is about to get underway, as fans of 12 Major League teams are going to be on the edges of their seats with every single pitch. For those who haven’t experienced it yet or haven’t experienced it in a long time, it is a hard feeling to describe, but you really do start to crave it at this time of the year when you have, especially if it’s a regular occurrence.
One road team is favored to kick off the best-of-three Wild Card Series, as the first game features Tarik Skubal laying a number in Cleveland. Otherwise, the home teams are favored across the board as we look at four Game 1s today. I’ll spew some thoughts on all four games and highlight the ones where I do have bets that I like.
Also, be sure to check out my series previews, linked below each game breakdown.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 30:
Tigers (-168, 6) at Guardians
1:08 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Tigers and Guardians have seen a lot of each other lately, as Cleveland swept the Sept. 16-18 series in Motown and took two of three Sept. 23-25 to pull ahead in the AL Central race. Ultimately, the Guardians erased a 15.5-game deficit – an 11-game deficit on Sept. 4 – to win the division and get home-field advantage here.
The neutralizer of home-field advantage is an elite starting pitcher and Tarik Skubal is exactly that. In line to win his second straight AL Cy Young Award, the southpaw finished the regular season with a 2.21 ERA, 2.74 xERA, and a 2.45 FIP. He more than quadrupled his Game 1 adversary Gavin Williams in fWAR. Skubal is a miserable at bat with a fastball that hits triple digits, a filthy changeup with elite arm action, and a hard-running sinker. Oh, and his slider is pretty good, too. Skubal’s changeup was +26.7 Pitching Runs per Statcast and the Guardians have had problems with changeups since well before the first iPhone was released.
Gavin Williams gets the call for Cleveland and has the unenviable task of keeping his team in the game against the second-best pitcher on the planet. While the full-season stats for Williams show a 3.06 ERA with a 4.28 xERA and a 4.39 FIP, he’s been extremely good for a while now. He has a 2.18 ERA with a 3.73 FIP in his last 12 starts, including 21 strikeouts against four walks in his last 11 innings against the Tigers. He’s allowed just two runs in those two starts and has only allowed more than two runs twice over those 12 outings.
As a Guardians fan, it does concern me that we’re getting day games in this series, as Williams and Tanner Bibee are good and the Tigers are way better against lefties, but Williams and Bibee are more homer-prone than a guy like Skubal. That may ultimately be the difference today.
But the total of 6 is probably warranted and I don’t think Skubal will be trying to make any blind between-the-legs throws or hit anybody in the face with 99 mph today. That said, in a very, very tight offensive environment per the total, laying this kind of number is hard, as an error or one mistake could swing this game.
No bet from me.
Tigers-Guardians Series Preview
Padres at Cubs (-131, 7)
3:08 p.m. ET (ABC)
Baseball on ABC feels a bit weird to say, no? Especially with a midday game, but this will harken back to the days when all of us watched Cubs games on WGN growing up because they were on when we got home from school. Nick Pivetta and Matthew Boyd are the slated starters here.
For as long as the Cubs are in the playoffs, the weather forecast will be critical. Wrigley Field plays dramatically different based on the way the breezes are blowing. For today, it will be a really nice day with sunny skies and mid-70s temps, but the breeze will not be helping the flight of the baseball, hence the total of 7.
Pivetta was a rock for the Padres this season, posting far and away a career-best ERA at 2.87. He had never had an ERA under 4.04 prior to this season. His 3.99 xERA was actually higher than last season and matched his 2023 season, but his 3.49 FIP was a career-best. As I noted in my series preview, Pivetta was very good on the road, but he was great at home. He had the benefit of 24.1 more innings at home, where he held opposing batters to a .172 BA and a .223 wOBA. Those numbers climbed to .224 and .296, respectively, on the road, where he allowed 13 of his 22 homers.
Interestingly, Pivetta did have reverse platoon splits across the board, and especially in the HR department, where he allowed 15 of his 22 long balls to righties. Might be worth keeping in mind if you are looking at some player props today. He only allowed 21 runs over his final 60 innings of the season, but did allow nine homers in that span. Righties had a 13.4% HR/FB% compared to a 6.1% HR/FB% for lefties. I assume a lot of bettors will just take left-handed hitters with their props against Pivetta, but I’d caution against that. The Cubs were just 18th in R vs. R wOBA this season at .305. Seiya Suzuki hit 22 HR in that split. He may be the guy to look at with a 1+ HR line of +526 at DK.
Boyd wound up being one of the most impactful free agent signings of the season. He wanted to stay in Cleveland, but ownership wasn’t willing to pay the price on a player with such an extensive health history. He wound up making 31 starts over 179.2 innings and it couldn’t have come at a better time with Justin Steele down for the count. Boyd is more of a pitch-to-contact guy than Pivetta and those do worry me in the postseason, but today’s Wrigley Field conditions should suppress offense a bit.
I am also concerned with Boyd’s second-half ERA of 4.63, especially on the heels of a tough September showing with 12 runs allowed in just 20.1 innings. But, I’m also not impressed with San Diego’s complete lack of contact quality, as they were 29th in Hard Hit% and 27th in Barrel%. The Cubs, meanwhile, were fifth in Barrel%.
I already took Chicago for the series, so I’m not going to double down here. Others who might match up okay against Pivetta are Pete Crow-Armstrong and Ian Happ, as both guys ranked in the top 22 in Pitch Type Value/100 against curveballs, which is Pivetta’s main secondary pitch after his 46% fastball usage.
No bet from me; will consider Suzuki 1+ HR at +526 and perhaps a total bases/H+R+R on Happ.
Red Sox at Yankees (-136, 7)
6:08 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Safe to say that ESPN got what they wanted here. Because the Blue Jays held the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Yankees, we get this longstanding rivalry in the 4 vs. 5 series in the AL. Because of the best-of-three format, each game is so massive, so this should be good for the World Wide Leader.
As far as Game 1 goes, Garrett Crochet vs. Max Fried. I’m not a Red Sox fan, but I do want to see the best of the best pitch in the playoffs and Crochet now gets to do that. He had four relief appearances over three innings in 2020 and 2021, but now he’s one of the best starters in baseball. In a world without Skubal, Crochet would be your 2025 AL Cy Young Award winner and I think he’ll still get a lot of votes, as he finished with a 2.59 ERA, 2.92 xERA, and a 2.89 FIP in his 205.1 innings of work. It was his first 200-inning season after being protected a bit by the White Sox last season when he made 32 starts, but only threw 146 innings.
Crochet was tremendously valuable for the Red Sox. Over the course of the season, they wound up losing Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck. They were so strapped for pitching that they traded a really good prospect in James Tibbs for Dustin May, but May is also hurt now. I could certainly argue in favor of a Crochet Cy Young vote.
Crochet did allow 14 homers in 76 innings in the second half and that would be my worry here. Fried does not allow home runs. He is a ground ball wizard with 14 HR allowed total in 195.1 innings of work. He’s never allowed more than 21 in a season. So, the Red Sox will likely have to manufacture their runs, whereas the Yankees can get runs with one swing of the bat. So, that’s a true worry.
However, I think this game is closer to a toss-up than the line implies. Fried did get back on track with a spectacular September, as he had a 1.89 ERA in 33.1 innings of work. That was on the heels of allowing 37 runs over his previous 54 innings. All pitchers go through rough patches and Fried’s was a sustained one, but he got through it. That being said, Boston was a top-10 lineup against lefties, not to NYY’s level, but still solid.
I’m guessing Crochet reaches back for another tick or two on the velo, but I also think he’ll minimize the use of his four-seam fastball even more here. He gave up 13 of his 24 homers on the four-seamer. We’re likely to see more cutters, sweepers, and sinkers out of him in this start. Pitchers minimize their arsenals come playoff time to throw their best pitches more. It’s no longer about navigating 162 games. It’s about emptying the tank every night.
In terms of home run suppression as a bullpen, Boston’s had the lowest HR/9 in the league and fifth-lowest Pull%. I think that group has a chance to hold up if they have a lead.
Pick: Red Sox +111
Red Sox-Yankees Series Preview
Reds at Dodgers (-206, 7)
9:08 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The late game is at Dodger Stadium, as the Reds and Dodgers begin their series. It will be Hunter Greene vs. Blake Snell, as Greene makes his first career postseason appearance and Snell makes his 13th. This will be Snell’s 11th postseason start and he owns a 3.33 ERA with a 3.95 FIP over 48.2 innings in the playoffs.
Snell, like so many Dodger pitchers, missed a lot of time this season. Since his return on August 2, four months after he hit the IL, he has a 2.41 ERA with a 2.31 FIP and a 2.39 xFIP. He’s struck out 68 and walked 18 while allowing just three home runs. Of those nine starts, five of them were at home. In those starts he allowed 0, 0, 0, 0, and 3 runs. The three runs came against the Diamondbacks on August 29, an Arizona team that finished in the top 10 in wOBA against LHP.
The Reds did not. In fact, they finished 24th in wOBA and 26th in wRC+ against southpaws. Overall, this is not a good Cincinnati lineup. They are in the playoffs because of their starting rotation. Greene, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Lodolo have all been excellent. I’m really surprised by Cincy’s decision to start Zack Littell in Game 2 over Lodolo or Abbott. They’re planning to deploy Lodolo as a potential lefty specialist out of the bullpen. Maybe he can be a bulk guy. We’ll see.
Greene also missed ample time this season, finishing with a 2.76 ERA, 3.09 xERA, and a 3.28 FIP over 107.2 innings of work and 19 starts. The primary separator for Greene this season is that he cut his BB% down to 6.2%. He was at 9.0% or higher in each of his previous three seasons. However, throwing more strikes led to more hard contact, as he allowed a career-high 9.6% Barrel% and 45% Hard Hit%. As predominantly a two-pitch pitcher, he’s able to get by with his elite velo, with a fastball that averaged 99.5 mph and was +17.3 Pitching Runs per Statcast.
With the talent on the roster, this is no surprise, but the Dodgers were first in MLB in SLG on pitch velocity of 97+ mph, which is what I consider above average to elite velo. They were third in batting average (Reds were second, btw) and fourth in wOBA (Reds were third!). For S&G, if we adjust the Statcast search parameters to 99+ mph pitches, the Dodgers were third in SLG (only at .395, though), seventh in BA at .224, and ninth in wOBA. The Reds actually fell to around league average. The sample sizes are a lot smaller, but each mph does matter.
Ultimately, you can see my conclusion about the Dodgers in the playoffs in my series preview (linked below). As far as Game 1 goes, I like Dodgers -0.5 for the 1st 5 at -120. The Reds are an awesome story, but they are likely to be very overmatched in this series, as the Dodgers lineup is just vastly better than theirs.
Greene really only throws the two pitches and the Dodgers are likely to cheat on one or two of them and maybe leave the ballpark. Snell’s pitch mix is tough to face and I don’t know how patient Reds hitters will be with the first postseason appearance for most of them.
Pick: Dodgers 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-120)
