MLB Best Bets Today October 27

The World Series now shifts to the City of Angels for three games with the 2-3-2 format. While a long shot, it is entirely possible that we don’t have another game in Toronto for this series, but that would take one of these two teams winning all three games in California. Based on the line for Game 3, the Dodgers have the higher probability of that, as they are a hefty favorite with Tyler Glasnow on the hill against Max Scherzer.

Scherzer’s massive Game 4 effort may have saved the season for Toronto in what was his first live action since September 24. That win evened the series at 2-2, but that start was also 11 days ago. Coincidentally, that’s the last time that Glasnow pitched as well.

Time to break this one down and see which bets there are to make.

By the way, I think these World Series player prop strategies are still very relevant the rest of the way.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for October 27:

Blue Jays vs. Dodgers (-206, 8.5)

8 p.m. ET (FOX)

With a win in Game 2, the series price swung heavily in LA’s favor, now above the -215 that DraftKings had before the series began. Even after losing Game 1, the Dodgers were still -120 favorites going into Game 2 and Yoshinobu Yamamoto fired a complete game and the Dodgers hit a couple of solo homers and grinded out three additional runs for the win.

The Jays, meanwhile, only had four hits and eight strikeouts against zero walks. Now they turn to Glasnow in hopes of something similar. He had a 3.19 ERA with a 3.25 xERA and a 3.76 FIP in 90.1 innings during the regular season. Over his 18 starts, he had a strong 29% K%, but also had a 11.7% BB%, a massive outlier for him. This postseason, he has 18 strikeouts in 13.1 innings, but also eight walks. In two starts, he has only allowed five hits in 11.2 innings. 

This is something like the Blake Snell start in Game 1, in that Glasnow is typically a guy who doesn’t allow a lot of hits, but he’s had a lot of strikeouts and walks this season. Ironically, this was the best walk season for Snell in a while, but he still worked a lot of deep counts and had traffic in every inning of that start. Glasnow allowed a 37.4% Hard Hit% and a 7.9% Barrel%, so he did have good contact management numbers.

The big thing about Glasnow, literally, is that he stands 6-foot-8. He has 100th percentile Extension at 7.6 feet, which helps his 95.8 mph fastball get on hitters much quicker. Oddly, he has a bottom 1% Chase Rate this season at 22.1%, which is shocking given his 73rd percentile Whiff% and 87th percentile K%. Glasnow throws at a 56-degree arm angle, which is a higher arm slot than most pitchers. For reference, Trey Yesavage throws at a 64-degree arm angle, so he’s even more over the top, which is one of the things that makes his splitter so effective.

The Blue Jays saw a 56-degree arm angle out of Snell in Game 1, but Snell’s Extension ranks in the 80th percentile. This is a way different arm slot and release point than you typically see. Glasnow made his own issues the first time through the order with a .186/.323/.333 slash and a .298 wOBA. He normally settled in after that point, as he had a 16.5% BB% the first time through, 10.6% BB% the second time through, and 3.0% BB% the third time through.

With some World Series jitters in the early going, Toronto will want to do damage early by taking advantage of positive counts and maybe even being a little more patient than they are accustomed to in order to set up innings by drawing walks.

Scherzer, who made 11 starts as a Dodger in 2021, will be as amped as humanly possible for this one. Despite a 5.19 ERA with a 4.78 xERA and a 4.99 FIP in 17 regular season starts over 85 innings of work, he gave the Blue Jays 5.2 solid innings against the Mariners with two runs allowed on three hits. He did walk four and struck out five.

And this will be a far more difficult start for him. Lefties slashed .257/.305/.545 against him, while righties put up a .269/.323/.434 slash. He allowed a .346 wOBA the first time through the order. And he was pummeled the third time through to the tune of a .446 wOBA in 67 plate appearances. He’s going to have to come out of the game here if John Schneider comes a-callin’ in the fourth or fifth.

Scherzer posted a career-worst 12.4% Barrel% and 38.2% Hard Hit%, so he had problems with hard contact against. Add in his lowest SwStr% since 2011 and lowest Chase Rate since 2009 and he’s going to need a lot of love from the BABIP gods. That was the case in his start against the Mariners, as he allowed six hard-hit balls and five were outs. Of the nine hardest-hit batted balls, only one was a hit, the Josh Naylor home run.

Because of Glasnow’s pitch inefficiency, it can be hard for him to work deep into games. Because of where Scherzer is in his career, it will be hard for him to work deep into this one. That could expose both bullpens here for sure, as the Dodgers bullpen was a disaster in Game 1 and their main weakness coming into the postseason. Louie Varland gave up two runs in his Game 2 appearance and he’s been one of the few trusted relievers for Schneider this postseason.

I’ve got a few things here:

Tyler Glasnow Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-109) and Max Scherzer Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+111)

If Glasnow turns the lineup over once without a walk, this one’s probably dead, but he hasn’t pitched in 11 days and I think the high arm slot will befuddle Blue Jays hitters at times, causing them to be a little more patient than normal. Glasnow also had just a 23.8% Chase Rate during the regular season and a 55.5% F-Strike%, which are both poor numbers.

On Scherzer, again, he hasn’t pitched in 11 days and he knows the quality of his stuff isn’t what it once was, so I’d expect him to attempt to get chases on stuff outside the zone. The Dodgers are probably too smart for that. Scherzer also had a 10% BB% away from Rogers Centre in 35 innings pitched. Not sure if it was a grip issue with his thumb or what, but it’s worth noting.

1st 3 Innings Over 2.5 (-115)

DraftKings offers 1st 3 Inning wagers and I think this is a good one, as both pitchers have some problems getting settled into the game. This is also a 5 p.m. PT start at Dodger Stadium, so that means it should be a little bit warmer and possibly help the ball carry. Fanduel also has this for the World Series and is -110 on Over 2.5, so the vig is a little bit better there.

I do lean Over 8.5 for the full game, as I don’t know how much length either starter will provide and middle relief is lacking for both teams, but I think this approach a little bit more, especially since both guys do tend to settle in a little as the game goes along.