MLB Best Bets Today November 1
The Major League Baseball season will officially end in November, as Game 7 tonight featuring Shohei Ohtani and Max Scherzer will decide the World Series champion. As has been the case throughout the series, the Dodgers are favored. With the controversy surrounding the “lodged ball” in Game 6, we’ll see if “ball don’t lie” here and the Blue Jays emerge victorious or if the Dodgers will win three of the four games in Toronto to leave as repeat champs.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for November 1:
Dodgers (-148, 8) at Blue Jays
8 p.m. ET
If you think you’ve seen Scherzer locked in and borderline psychotic, wait until tonight. The 41-year-old champ with the Nationals in 2019 and Rangers in 2023 has the chance to win his third World Series and the first for the Blue Jays in 32 years. Scherzer has allowed five runs on eight hits with an 8/5 K/BB ratio in his 10 innings of work this postseason. He started the 18-inning game and went 4.1 innings with three runs allowed on five hits.
With an entire offseason to rest, I would think only Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Kevin Gausman are unavailable tonight, so I will be very curious to see how short of a leash Scherzer has and who will be first out of the bullpen. Scherzer had a 5.19 ERA with a 4.78 xERA and a 4.99 FIP over 85 innings in the regular season and has a 4.50 ERA with a 6.94 FIP in the playoffs, allowing three homers in his two starts.
Much like my thoughts in Game 3, I’m not really expecting much from Scherzer here. Shane Bieber is an option and he was strong in Game 4. Eric Lauer is another option. Chris Bassitt worked back-to-back days earlier in the series, so he’s fine after pitching yesterday. All of them are capable of working multiple innings. Of course, manager John Schneider will have to avoid the wrath of Scherzer if he pulls him before Max is ready to go. The stuff quality just isn’t there for Max anymore. His 10.7% SwStr% in the regular season was his lowest since 2011 and his 26.3% Chase Rate was his lowest since 2009. Those are not good signs in a one-start vacuum or for wherever he ends up next season.
The Blue Jays had a really good plan against Ohtani in Game 4, as they had four runs on six hits over six innings. Ohtani struck out six and only walked one, but fell apart in the seventh, allowing a single and a double before Anthony Banda set fire to the mound and allowed those two inherited runners to score. Ohtani’s velo was down significantly on his secondaries, and down a little bit on his fastball. He allowed a 50% Hard Hit% on batted balls, including a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. two-run homer.
His 47% fastball usage was surprising to me, as he was around 39% with the pitch during the regular season. He had four Whiffs on 22 swings, while posting Whiff% of 50% and 57% with the sweeper and curveball, respectively. I talked yesterday about Gausman’s fastball usage in his first start of the series and how I expected adjustments. They came. He threw 53% splitters and had 15 Whiffs on 27 swings. He was outstanding for the most part with 20 Whiffs overall.
Will we see a different pitch mix from Ohtani here? I think we will. Yamamoto didn’t really change anything last night, but he didn’t really need to. He was so good in Game 2 and so good again in this last start that what he was doing was working to say the least. Ohtani wasn’t terribly sharp and only had a 27% CSW% (called strike + Whiff%) on the fastball. He did have elevated curveball usage compared to his performance during the regular season. I know that the Dodgers have been cautious with him in his return to the hill, but this is Game 7. Let him eat if he can.
He hasn’t pitched well in the series, but Blake Snell is a relief option here. So is Tyler Glasnow. So is Clayton Kershaw if need be. Even Game 3 hero Will Klein is recovered enough to go. I don’t know that Roki Sasaki will be, as he threw 33 pitches yesterday and has only worked back-to-back days once in the postseason. He threw 13 pitches on Oct. 16 and nine pitches on Oct. 17. He was not sharp yesterday.
I’ll lay the Dodgers price today, as they should be able to piecemeal this game together without going to their relievers, as they can use Glasnow and Kershaw and will probably get some length out of Shohei. I’ll also take Ohtani Over 4.5 Strikeouts at +122 expecting he alters his pitch mix a bit.
Also, Ohtani is reportedly a big-time sleeper and he had to pitch coming off of that 18-inning game that lasted well over six hours. He had to be thrown off of his schedule for that start.
Picks: Dodgers -144; Shohei Ohtani (LAD) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+122)
