MLB Bullpen Betting Systems for the 2025 Season:
Fans of VSiN are quite familiar with my affection for betting teams with the best bullpens and fading those with the worst relief staffs. Unfortunately, the 2024 season proved it was by no means a foolproof strategy, as while still keeping my bankroll afloat, my usual reliable game-by-game bullpen systems were off a bit as far as their usual production levels are concerned. That said, some of the more detailed systems maintained their productive, consistent levels. As we head into opening day 2025, know that I will again be tracking the results of the systems and giving VSiN pro subscribers regular updates on the system records, team stats, and my daily updated bullpen ratings.
For those of you perhaps new to VSiN, and hence new to the MLB Bullpen Systems, they derive from my own fundamental belief that backing teams with better bullpen performance consistently over the course of a season will lead to profits, or at the least, minimize losses. It has done so in every year I have shared the logic. This season has been a somewhat volatile one for the “easiest” angle, and although we still remain in negative territory for this simplest of the systems, I have preached that diligent patience is key to letting this methodology bloom.
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To fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
In the 2023 season, I came up with a method of using my bullpen ratings in what I call the “THE QUICKEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM”. This is it:
The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2024 season, better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 went 1099-995 for -102.97 units in the regular season. This was well below usual standards, but still, it proved that there are better ways than the quickest way to use the bullpen rating data. That said, for playing nearly every game on the board, it was still an advantageous strategy, as the average bettor playing every MLB game for the season theoretically would have lost about -230 units.
Note that this angle is already 2-0 for 2025 after the Dodgers’ two wins in Tokyo
However, narrowing down the plays and using greater discernment in your baseball wagering can provide an even bigger edge. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems, which you’ll see below. I personally am still playing these daily, and as you can see, they are still faring well.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%!
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for 8.01 units. The ROI on this angle is at +2.3% ROI.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results.
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This is a massive one-year swing for this system in 2024, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. We will give it a chance in 2025 but monitor it closely.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%!
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report.
Here are my MLB Bullpen Ratings entering the 2025 season:
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 3/26)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. CLEVELAND: 24
2. LA DODGERS: 23
3. MINNESOTA: 21
4. ATLANTA: 20
5. NY YANKEES: 17
6. PHILADELPHIA: 15
7. BALTIMORE: 14
8. ARIZONA: 13
9. SEATTLE: 13
10. DETROIT: 12
11. NY METS: 12
12. SAN FRANCISCO: 12
13. SAN DIEGO: 11
14. MILWAUKEE: 10
15. TORONTO: 7
16. ATHLETICS: 5
17. HOUSTON: 4
18. LA ANGELS: 3
19. TEXAS: 2
20. TAMPA BAY: 1
21. ST LOUIS: -1
22. BOSTON: -2
23. PITTSBURGH: -2
24. CHICAGO CUBS: -3
25. KANSAS CITY: -4
26. MIAMI: -6
27. CINCINNATI: -7
28. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -9
29. WASHINGTON: -10
30. COLORADO: -11
