MLB Bullpen Betting Systems for the 2026 Season:
For any VSiN readers who have been following my baseball work for the past few seasons, you are keenly aware of how much I value bullpens in the grand scheme of handicapping. I demonstrate this through my regular tracking and sharing of a set of unique, proprietary, and successful systems utilizing my team bullpen ratings. For the last three years, when I have been publishing regular articles about the MLB Bullpen Systems, they have produced consistent profits for VSiN Pro Subscribers. If you aren’t familiar, in this particular piece, I will be reintroducing the systems tracked and sharing my opening day bullpen ratings for the first time.
At this point, you might be asking, what type of profits are we talking about? Is this going to take a lot of work on my part to invest in? Well, the answer to the first question is…while nothing is ever guaranteed, the “Better Bullpen Underdog angle,” which is one of our readers’ favorites year after year, finished just shy of +60 units for 2025. Elsewhere, there were so many season highlights that it’s simply difficult to qualify as a bullet point item. You can see the full results below in the various system details. The answer to the second question is NO. It is a very easy process. My son AJ and I basically share with you which teams qualify for which systems each and every morning in our extremely valuable VSiN MLB Analytics Reports.
For those of you perhaps new to VSiN, and hence new to the MLB Bullpen Systems, they derive from my own fundamental belief that backing teams with better bullpen performance consistently over the course of a season will lead to profits, or at least minimize losses. It has done so every year I have shared the logic. It seems that even after many years of starting pitchers lasting fewer and fewer innings each season on average, oddsmakers are still predicating their lines on lineups and starting pitchers. In many cases, the relief pitchers are almost ignored. This is where the value is derived from if you have a solid and reliable set of bullpen ratings, systems, and even score simulations. I have all of this and share it with VSiN subscribers every day throughout the season.
In looking at the 2026 bullpen situations, if you weren’t paying attention, there have been some noteworthy changes for some teams. Among them:
– Baltimore: Ryan Helsley takes over as the primary closer.
– LA Dodgers: Edwin Díaz is now the top closer option.
– Houston: Josh Hader is starting the 2026 season on the injured list, leaving Bryan Abreu in his absence as the top closer.
– Arizona: Paul Sewald is expected to start as the closer, but A.J. Puk is expected to challenge for the role upon returning from the IL.
– NY Yankees: David Bednar is now the primary closer, perhaps yielding some opportunities to Camilo Doval.
– Texas: It sounds as if Jose Diaz has been demoted, making Robert Garcia the favorite for the closer role.
– Detroit: Veteran Kenley Jansen has been added and will likely serve as the primary closer, a role he has occupied for several teams now.
– St. Louis: Could be a committee role for saving games, using a mix of Riley O’Brien and JoJo Romero.
– Minnesota: This situation could also end up being a committee approach, with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and others.
– Tampa Bay: Yet another likely committee, potentially led by Griffin Jax and Garrett Cleavinger.
Without further ado, here are the various system records through the 2025 season that we will be tracking throughout 2026. Note that on occasion, I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
– For the 2025 regular season, better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 went 1,138-1,004 for +0.15 units and an ROI of 0%. We got back 19.82 units over the last seven days in what turned out to be THE best week of the season, and it pushed us into the black! When you consider that almost 2,100 games have qualified on such a simple, idealistic angle, the advantage of this angle over simply blindly playing teams is extraordinary. In fact, the average MLB bettor not using it and playing all MLB games this season would theoretically be down over -130 units, or -6.1% ROI. Try finding another simplistic concept that can keep a bettor afloat like this playing nearly every game on the board.
Although I always remind readers that easiest isn’t always best, the nearly dead even returns on 2,142 games validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these on a daily basis, and as you can see, most or all fared very well in 2025. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them correlation systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the final regular-season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so in the postseason and into next year:
1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a negative SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams.
2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well.
3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks of 2025.
4)Teams with poor bullpens (negative SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle!
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN and STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record but showing better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher ratings have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and a ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The ’25 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the ’26 campaign.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the ’23-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was historically below standard (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce-back in ’25, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, with an ROI of +6.2%!
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 705-754 record, for +23.82 units (ROI 1.6%) in the full 2024-25 seasons. I believe this angle has some merit in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but wound up 377-404 for +13.98 units.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For 2025, they were an uncustomary 220-211 for +18.9 units (ROI 4.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so the ‘25 results of 107-100 for +3.03 units were disappointing.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in ’25, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Although it lost -5.28 units in 2025, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2025 disappointing results aside, I will continue to track this one in 2026 as well.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These were the final key bullpen stats that accumulated in the 2025 regular season, followed by my Beginning of Season 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for any key additions or subtractions to the rosters. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last season to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2025 regular season finals)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN DIEGO: 3.06
2. BOSTON: 3.41
3. CLEVELAND: 3.44
4. SAN FRANCISCO: 3.48
5. TEXAS: 3.62
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. WASHINGTON: 5.59
29. COLORADO: 5.18
28. LA ANGELS: 4.86
27. ARIZONA: 4.82
26. MINNESOTA: 4.6
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN DIEGO: 1.15
2. TEXAS: 1.22
3. HOUSTON: 1.22
4. CLEVELAND: 1.23
5. CHICAGO CUBS: 1.23
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. WASHINGTON: 1.52
29. COLORADO: 1.51
28. BALTIMORE: 1.42
27. LA ANGELS: 1.41
26. ARIZONA: 1.41
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.05
2. TAMPA BAY: 9.87
3. TORONTO: 9.7
4. SAN DIEGO: 9.58
5. NY YANKEES: 9.51
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. DETROIT: 7.71
29. KANSAS CITY: 7.76
28. COLORADO: 7.86
27. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.93
26. ARIZONA: 8.09
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. CINCINNATI: 0.81
2. MINNESOTA: 0.87
3. TORONTO: 0.89
4. CLEVELAND: 0.94
5. NY METS: 0.94
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.59
29. ARIZONA: 1.57
28. WASHINGTON: 1.5
27. ST LOUIS: 1.45
26. BALTIMORE: 1.45
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since end-of-2025 regular season:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. WASHINGTON: +26 points
2. COLORADO: +19
3. LA DODGERS: +8
4. MINNESOTA: +6
5. PHILADELPHIA: +5
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. ATHLETICS: -11 points
2. CLEVELAND: -10
3. CHICAGO CUBS: -7
4. MILWAUKEE: -6
4. SAN FRANCISCO: -6
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 3/23)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. SAN DIEGO: 26
2. MILWAUKEE: 24
3. BOSTON: 20
4. CLEVELAND: 19
5. LA DODGERS: 18
6. SEATTLE: 16
7. CHICAGO CUBS: 15
8. HOUSTON: 14
9. PITTSBURGH: 14
10. TORONTO: 12
11. PHILADELPHIA: 10
12. KANSAS CITY: 10
13. NY YANKEES: 9
14. TAMPA BAY: 9
15. NY METS: 8
16. TEXAS: 8
17. ATHLETICS: 8
18. ATLANTA: 7
19. DETROIT: 5
20. CINCINNATI: 5
21. ST LOUIS: 5
22. MIAMI: 4
23. BALTIMORE: 3
24. SAN FRANCISCO: 2
25. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1
26. LA ANGELS: 0
27. ARIZONA: -2
28. MINNESOTA: -3
29. COLORADO: -7
30. WASHINGTON: -9
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
