MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for August 25:
With college football starting this week, my plate of tasks to accomplish is extremely full, but I want to ensure I keep all my baseball followers up to speed on the latest from the popular MLB Bullpen Systems. We come off a pretty good week filled with a number of highlights. That is usually the case when the “Easiest” system makes a profit, which it did over the past seven days, with a gain of +4.96 units. To try to wrap this up quickly, I will simply provide readers with a list of highlights, answer a question a reader sent in this past week, and, of course, share all the updated system records and current ratings. Let’s get right to it.
As I just noted, there was a positive return on the easiest system this past week, almost 5 units. Most of the other stuff again fared very well. Here are some of the highlights from the past seven days:
– Correlation system #2 was big once again. If you recall, fading strong bullpens but bad starting pitchers continued to thrive, as these teams lost another -5.03 units.
– The IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM has proven to be the best thing on the report this season, and last week it brought home another 8-2 record for +6.09 units. If you recall, this is the angle that says to back teams with better SM Starting Pitcher and Bullpen Ratings when they have an even or worse record. The prices aren’t high but the teams fare well, now +51.31 untis for the season!
– BETTER BULLPEN underdogs had another nice week, going 24-24 for +3.89 units.
– WORSE SM BULLPEN teams riding at least three-game winning streaks again struggled, losing another -2.88 units last week!
– BETTER SM BULLPEN teams looking to thwart at least three-game losing streaks added another +4.58 units last week after going 8-4.
Before the unveiling of all of this week’s system records update, I thought I would give the astute reader who asked me the question about whether or not the variance in bullpen ratings matters an answer. I ran a quick query, and the answer is actually YES, there has been a window where certain level bullpen variances have been more successful. If you want to use the following in your own handicapping, you are certainly welcome to. As for me, I will continue to watch closely.
Here is what I found…in MLB games in which the difference in the SM BULLPEN RATINGS of the teams has been between 10-39, those better bullpen teams are 619-476 for +21.44 units (ROI 2.0%). In games where the margin is 0-9 or 40+, the record of those better bullpen teams has been 434-402 for -43.89 units (ROI: -5.3%). That swing of 7.3% would be the difference in winning or losing, so it could be something to consider. There is somewhat of a foundation to it. The 0-9 teams aren’t definitively better bullpens, as the logic for backing them is lessened. The 40+ margin teams are likely heavily overpriced. The 10-39 is the sweet spot this season, apparently.
Remember, to fully implement these bullpen-focused strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 8/24:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 913-812 for +17.61 units and an ROI of -1.0% so far in the regular season. After a horrendous week prior, we got back +4.96 units over the last seven days. Still, even with the negative -1% ROI, when you consider that 1,725 games have qualified on such a simple, idealistic angle, the advantage of this angle over simply blindly playing teams is noteworthy. In fact, the average MLB bettor not using it and playing all MLB games this season would theoretically be down over -105 units, or -6.1% ROI. Thus, this methodology, without any other things considered, gives an advantage of 5.1%.
Although I always remind readers that easiest isn’t always best, the slightly negative returns on 1,725 games validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these on a daily basis, and as you can see, most or all are still faring very well. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles are new to the bullpen analysis and new to the daily reports as of about a month ago now. I have named them correlation systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here is the updated record of these four angles we are now regularly tracking:
1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 54-50 for -8.95 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -8.6% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 139-194 for -53.49 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -16.1%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become as reliable as almost anything else in this report. This angle is 36.62 for -22.94 units since the All-Star Break
3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 297-175 for +23.66 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.0%. However, this angle has cooled off dramatically over the last few weeks.
4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 122-223 for -30.66 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -8.9%!
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 182-112 for +51.31 units, and a ROI of +17.5%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and since the ASB, it is 55-42 for +16.27 units.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 95-46 for -8.18 units. We have been hovering the red for about three weeks now, like usual.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 113-37 for +19.89 units, an ROI of +13.3%.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 74.31 for +5.13 units. Still, we remain very close to going into the usual negative territory.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in ’25. We gained +3.89 units last week to bring the season record to 364-385 for +39.02 units, ROI +5.2%!
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are back in the black, now 300-326 for +7.3 units.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 168-180 for -6.78 units (ROI -1.9%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 79-81, -5.48 units for the year.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 151-204 for -18.65 units, an ROI of -5.2%. After a couple of rough weeks, this is now back at “average performing level” so we will continue to monitor it.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and after a nice month-long run of +19.06 units, it is now 201-153 for +12.48 units (ROI 3.5%).
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it has cooled lately after a strong start, 97-84 for -4.39 units. This angle has been a disappointment so far, but it has gotten back +8.3 units since the All-Star break.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of an in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings and the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams for the week.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 8/24)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN DIEGO: 2.96
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 3.29
3. BOSTON: 3.41
4. CLEVELAND: 3.6
5. TEXAS: 3.6
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. WASHINGTON: 5.59
29. COLORADO: 5.26
28. ATHLETICS: 4.87
27. LA ANGELS: 4.8
26. ARIZONA: 4.79
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN DIEGO: 1.14
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.21
3. HOUSTON: 1.21
4. TEXAS: 1.23
5. MILWAUKEE: 1.23
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. COLORADO: 1.52
29. WASHINGTON: 1.51
28. BALTIMORE: 1.43
27. LA ANGELS: 1.42
26. ARIZONA: 1.42
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.22
2. TORONTO: 9.85
3. TAMPA BAY: 9.71
4. BALTIMORE: 9.55
5. NY YANKEES: 9.37
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. DETROIT: 7.66
29. KANSAS CITY: 7.77
28. COLORADO: 7.82
27. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.91
26. ARIZONA: 7.96
Top 5 Bulplen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. PITTSBURGH: 0.87
2. ATHLETICS: 0.89
3. WASHINGTON: 0.92
4. SAN DIEGO: 0.99
5. DETROIT: 1.06
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.96
29. SEATTLE: 1.93
28. NY METS: 1.75
27. ATLANTA: 1.65
26. TORONTO: 1.65
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday, 8/18:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. WASHINGTON: +13 points
2. PITTSBURGH: +10
3. ATHLETICS: +8
4. ARIZONA: +7
5. COLORADO: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. SEATTLE: -10 points
1. ATLANTA: -10
3. TAMPA BAY: -9
4. CLEVELAND: -6
5. PHILADELPHIA: -5
5. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -5
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 8/25)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. SAN DIEGO: 45
2. MILWAUKEE: 28
3. CHICAGO CUBS: 18
4. TAMPA BAY: 16
5. BOSTON: 15
6. ATHLETICS: 14
7. MIAMI: 14
8. DETROIT: 12
9. PITTSBURGH: 12
10. PHILADELPHIA: 11
11. LA DODGERS: 10
12. CLEVELAND: 10
13. LA ANGELS: 10
14. HOUSTON: 9
15. ST LOUIS: 9
16. SAN FRANCISCO: 9
17. ATLANTA: 7
18. TEXAS: 5
19. KANSAS CITY: 5
20. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 5
21. CINCINNATI: 4
22. MINNESOTA: 3
23. SEATTLE: 1
24. ARIZONA: 1
25. NY YANKEES: 0
26. TORONTO: 0
27. BALTIMORE: 0
28. NY METS: -1
29. WASHINGTON: -23
30. COLORADO: -29
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are three teams on a 3+ game winning streak (TEX, CHC, PIT) and three teams on a 3+ game losing skid (CLE, LAA, COL).
