MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for July 7

MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for July 7:

As we cruise into the final week of games before the 2025 MLB All-Star Break, this week’s Bullpen Systems Report should help you wrap up the unofficial first half of the season with some profits. It’s been a solid 3+ months for most of the angles, and if not profitable, any of the systems have again proven advantageous to simply random picking of games. In this week’s report, I want to concentrate on the two best CORRELATION systems that have been performing remarkably well since introduction, plus take a deeper look at the recent plight of the Yankees, who are in the midst of a swoon that has seen their bullpen ratings take a dive, bringing some of my systems numbers with them.

I remain grateful to a savvy reader who felt I was missing an analysis of some valuable nuggets from my daily MLB team, starting pitcher, and bullpen ratings, the same ones posted on the VSiN.com website. This can happen when you’re deeply involved in updating data every day. I often find myself wanting to do more regression analysis, but either time doesn’t allow for it, I don’t have a betting motivation to do it, or I simply need a nudge in the right direction. Well, all three of those things sort of converged a month ago when I set out to break down all of my bullpen log data that I’ve collected in recent seasons. I’m sure glad I did, since I was able to find some things that I have relied upon consistently in my own wagering. Had I just continued on the path of the status quo, I wouldn’t be anywhere near the profit levels I have been for the past month. With that in mind, if anyone reading this has a viable theory or potential angle that you feel I should study, just shoot me a message and I’ll see if I can get at it.

While all of the correlation systems have built on their opening release numbers from a month ago, I have taken a particular interest in two of them, and they are numbered #2 & #3 below. This first one, #2 below, indicates a change from a theory I used to go by. That being that you could still wager on bad starting pitchers occasionally if they were backed by a solid bullpen. With an ROI of over -14% so far this season, this angle has proven that is not the case. A good bullpen can keep a team in games, or ahead in games, but they aren’t all that effective if a team gets buried early in a contest. The other one, noted #3, simply combines elite starting pitching and elite relief pitching to make for a complete pitching situation.

 When both of these co-exist and the opponent doesn’t have one or the other, or both, it has been wildly successful.  This angle has produced over +43 units of profit for the season and has won at about a 65% clip. I challenge you to show me another relatively simple baseball betting angle that produces that level of success by using ratings like these. Of course, for both systems, you do have to have the Steve Makinen starting pitcher and bullpen ratings at your disposal, making being a VSiN Pro Subscriber worth every penny. 

I touched upon it early in the intro, but the Yankees’ recent skid has cost my bullpen systems a lot recently, as they have seen their bullpen ratings drop dramatically. They have gone from a top-five bullpen rating team to one that is sixth-worst in the league heading into this week’s action. In fact, their rating dropped 18 points alone just this past week, and you can see in the stats below that they easily have the league’s worst WHIP in their last seven contests. 

Looking at the situation a little closer, the Yankees’ struggles began two weeks ago after beating Baltimore in back-to-back games to close out a homestand. They hit the road to take on Cincinnati, and their bullpen hasn’t been the same since. Their stats in 13 games since (4-9 record): 44-2/3 innings, 7.46 ERA. 23 walks, 1.68 WHIP. In the process, they have seen a once comfortable division lead disintegrate into a deficit. Anyone who has watched closely or even paid minimal attention knows that the bullpen has been heavily involved in the swoon, unfortunately. Things don’t get easy heading into the break either, as New York will face a bullpen rating deficit versus both Seattle and the Cubs this week.

To quickly summarize last week’s bullpen systems results, if you took the easy road out (easiest system), you again lost money. If you dug deeper and utilized the more refined systems, particularly the new correlation systems, surely you expanded your bankroll nicely. This might be the mantra for the rest of the season. All of the updated numbers are below. Good luck on your wagering this week, and we’ll see you for another update next Monday. 

Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.

Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 7/6: 

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 628-551 for -13.31 units and an ROI of -1.1% so far in the regular season. While losing over 12 units the last two weeks has us in the red for the first time this season, when you consider that almost 1,200 games have qualified on such a simple, idealistic angle, these are still advantageous numbers for such a simplistic system encompassing so many games. The average MLB bettor not using it and playing all MLB games this season would theoretically be down over -71 units. 

The last two weeks have proven why easiest isn’t always best. In fact, it validates why I personally prefer using greater discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these on a daily basis, and as you can see, most or all are still faring very well. THIS is where you should start your handicapping routine each day. 

These next angles are new to the bullpen analysis and new to the daily reports, as of about a month ago now. I have named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here is the updated record of these four angles we are now regularly tracking:

1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 35-35 for -9.05 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -12.9% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games. However, this angle was 4-0 last week!

2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 94-122 for -30.51 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.1%. This angle had another huge week, 9-12 for -4.1 units. Fade these qualifiers almost anytime they come up.

3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 206-111 for +43.09 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.6%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario. This angle brought home another +4.15 units last week.

4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 87-180 for -42.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -16%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade, and it continued losing big last week while netting -5.97 units. 

** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 118-76 for +29.51 units, and an ROI of 15.2%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and we are including it on the daily MLB Analytics Reports going forward. 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 68-28 for +5.31 units. This remains a winning first-half angle, although we are still very close to going red.

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent.
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 96-29 for +22.21 units, an ROI of 17.8%. 

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 and 2024 regular seasons most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 64-25 for +7.22 units. We remain just a few losses away from going into the usual negative territory. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season. 

Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 237-270 for +14.58 units, ROI +2.9%.

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are making the trek to get back in the black, 195-221 for -6.59 units.

Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 123-127 for +0.02 units (ROI 0%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 63-60, +1.92 units. 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 125-98 for -0.43 units, after having recovered from a very slow start. 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it has cooled lately after a strong start, 68-65 for -13.09 units. This angle has been a major disappointment so far and is very close to being removed from the daily reports. 

Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of an in-depth handicapping library available to readers. 

Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings and the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams for the week. 

Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 7/6) 

Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 2.96
2. HOUSTON: 3.22
3. SAN DIEGO: 3.25
4. CHICAGO CUBS: 3.26
5. TEXAS: 3.33 

Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. WASHINGTON: 5.79
29. ATHLETICS: 5.73
28. ARIZONA: 5.06
27. LA ANGELS: 5.01
26. COLORADO: 4.59 

Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. HOUSTON: 1.13
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.14
3. SAN DIEGO: 1.2
4. TORONTO: 1.2
5. PITTSBURGH: 1.2 

Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. ATHLETICS: 1.59
29. WASHINGTON: 1.53
28. LA ANGELS: 1.51
27. COLORADO: 1.45
26. ARIZONA: 1.41 

Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.69
2. TORONTO: 9.75
3. BALTIMORE: 9.72
4. NY YANKEES: 9.43
5. ATHLETICS: 9.36 

Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.27
29. DETROIT: 7.56
28. COLORADO: 7.62
27. KANSAS CITY: 7.77
26. PITTSBURGH: 7.84 

Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. MILWAUKEE: 0.91
2. SEATTLE: 0.98
3. PITTSBURGH: 0.98
4. BOSTON: 1.01
5. HOUSTON: 1.03 

Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. NY YANKEES: 1.88
29. TEXAS: 1.69
28. NY METS: 1.67
27. MINNESOTA: 1.63
26. DETROIT: 1.6 

I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.

Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday, 6/30:

Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. ARIZONA: +8 points
1. SAN DIEGO: +8
3. CLEVELAND: +7
3. MILWAUKEE: +7
4. HOUSTON: +6
4. PHILADELPHIA: +6

Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. NY YANKEES: -18 points
2. ST LOUIS: -8
3. CINCINNATI: -7
4. TAMPA BAY: -5

Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 7/7)

Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. HOUSTON: 36
2. CHICAGO CUBS: 35
3. SAN DIEGO: 25
4. ATLANTA: 22
5. MILWAUKEE: 22
6. BALTIMORE: 19
7. TEXAS: 18
8. MIAMI: 17
9. SEATTLE: 15
10. PITTSBURGH: 15
11. KANSAS CITY: 13
12. SAN FRANCISCO: 12
13. CLEVELAND: 12
14. DETROIT: 11
15. MINNESOTA: 10
16. BOSTON: 10
17. TORONTO: 8
18. TAMPA BAY: 7
19. ST LOUIS: 7
20. LA DODGERS: 6
21. LA ANGELS: 5
22. PHILADELPHIA: 2
23. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 2
24. CINCINNATI: 1
25. NY YANKEES: 1
26. NY METS: -4
27. ARIZONA: -9
28. COLORADO: -17
29. WASHINGTON: -29
30. ATHLETICS: -29

These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.

As we head into this week’s games, there are six teams on a 3+ game winning streak (TOR, BOS, BAL, DET, HOU, SEA) and five teams on a 3+ game losing skid (LAA, ATL, WAS, PIT, LAD).