MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for June 16:
I’m here with another weekly MLB Bullpen Systems update. While the easiest system lost a few units last week, the newest starting pitcher/bullpen rating correlation systems I introduced last week, as well as the “importance of pitching” system, are rolling big-time. Hopefully, you’ve made these systems a regular part of your baseball handicapping routine. If not, you need to be consulting the VSiN MLB Analytics Reports each day. You may also know them as the articles titled “MLB Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends.”
As part of this weekly update, I will be sharing the detailed information on what worked and what didn’t this past week, focus in some more on the hottest bullpen teams right now, and share some of the crazy streaks going on now in baseball, with nine teams both winning or losing 3+ games as we head into this week’s action. Enjoy, and good luck on your baseball wagering!
Top MLB Resources:
I have to credit the reader who reached out to me on X recently, as his thought process and idea for researching may have led me to a baseball gold mine. The “correlation” systems I discovered a week ago have all excelled this past week. They all have a foundation to them, so I would not be surprised if they continued to produce for bettors week after week. I called them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and bullpen.
After recognizing last week that I included the wins and losses of games in which both teams qualified for the criteria, games which would be ,500 on the system regardless, I decided to go back in and tabulate the results where only one team qualified for the angle. The updated lingo is below, and you will see that systems #3 & #4 had big weeks since the introduction. Here are the four angles we are now tracking:
1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 26-28 for -10.44 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -19.3,% and it proves my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games
2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 69-89 for -22.09 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14%.
3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 161-86 for +36.32 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +14.7%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario. This angle was 14-4 for +8.56 units since I introduced it last Monday.
4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 74-157 for -39.32 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -17%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid. This system comes off a week of 5-12 for -4.44 units.
These four systems have been added to our daily Analytics Reports.
As I mentioned earlier, there are a pair of teams whose bullpens are on an absolute roll. The Cubs’ relief staff has been hot for over a month. The Orioles’ pen has picked up its performance level greatly over the past two weeks. Take a look at the details:
– The Cubs’ stats since May 12th are simply amazing—110 innings of work, WHIP of 0.92, ERA of 0.98. Manager Craig Counsell will look for continued success from his relief staff when they host his former team, the Brewers, in a key midweek series starting Tuesday.
– The Orioles’ surge has been both sudden and impressive, and came out of nowhere. The team was struggling horribly at the time, carrying a 15-28 record, and fired its manager. Since then, they are 15-12, and performing better in almost every area, no more so than in the bullpen. That group has been on the biggest upward movers list (below) in back-to-back weeks. Since May 28th, the stats show an ERA of 1.61 and a WHIP of 0.91 with 80 strikeouts in 61 2/3 innings of work.
Obviously, the Cubs are relying on their bullpen a lot in recent weeks to maintain control of the NL Central Division, while the Orioles have gained a lot of ground to come within 7 1/2 games of the final playoff spot. It is no accident that the bullpen has played a huge role in both situations.
The updated system numbers for all the bullpen angles are below. I have always embraced the idea that better bullpen teams are the stronger wager when assessing the options. They just aren’t accounted for as much as starting pitching by oddsmakers, thus giving bettors value in typically at least 1/3 of games or more.
What’s the easiest way to use these bullpen ratings? Well, there can be more profitable ways (by ROI) requiring fewer plays, but the easiest method I have now is detailed in the very first system below. I have called it fittingly THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM. By simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent, you would have netted +45.66 units in the 2023 season. It lost about twice as much last season, so I’ve been hoping for a bounce-back year in 2025. We could be on our way to getting that.
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunda, 6/15:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 507-426 for +2.8 units and an ROI of 0.3% so far in the regular season. We’re off a second straight slight losing week, giving back -2.92 units of profit. To get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy, playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettor now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -55 units.
It’s been a solid first 2 1/2 months of the season overall for the MLB Bullpen Systems, and we are still profitable on 933 games wagered. However, I personally prefer using greater discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these on a daily basis, and as you can see, they are still faring well.
** NEW ’25 IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 96-55 for +29.24 units, and an ROI of 19.4%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and we are including it on the daily MLB Analytics Reports going forward. We gained another +4.29 units last week.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 54-20 for +9.68 units. This remains an unusual winning year for this angle.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 82-24 for +19.67 units, an ROI of 18.6%.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are unusually positive, 55-20 for +9.06 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are well in the black again, but we lost our seven-week winning streak by giving back -0.47 units this past week. For the season, the record is now 185-204 for +13.24 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now nearly positive at 156-174 for -3.45 units.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 95-97 for +2.1 units (ROI +1.1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (50-43, +9.31 units) are somewhat surprising. With all of the other good new info we have found recently, we are close to the point of eliminating this system from the report.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 105-79 for +0.69 units, having recovered from a slow start.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it has cooled lately after a strong start, 54-46 for -3.85 units.
Again, these simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 6/15)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 2.67
2. TAMPA BAY: 3.05
3. NY METS: 3.08
4. CHICAGO CUBS: 3.16
5. HOUSTON: 3.19
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. ATHLETICS: 5.98
29. WASHINGTON: 5.67
28. LA ANGELS: 5.56
27. ARIZONA: 5.2
26. COLORADO: 4.67
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.13
2. HOUSTON: 1.13
3. TORONTO: 1.16
4. SAN DIEGO: 1.19
5. TEXAS: 1.21
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. ATHLETICS: 1.63
29. WASHINGTON: 1.59
28. LA ANGELS: 1.56
27. COLORADO: 1.47
26. ARIZONA: 1.45
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.46
2. TORONTO: 10.01
3. BALTIMORE: 9.82
4. NY YANKEES: 9.59
5. MINNESOTA: 9.57
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.32
29. ST LOUIS: 7.55
28. DETROIT: 7.69
27. COLORADO: 7.73
26. MIAMI: 7.83
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. BALTIMORE: 0.76
2. PITTSBURGH: 0.78
3. HOUSTON: 0.8
4. TEXAS: 1.03
5. CHICAGO CUBS: 1.12
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. COLORADO: 1.93
29. TORONTO: 1.93
28. NY METS: 1.69
27. BOSTON: 1.67
26. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.63
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday, 6/9:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. PITTSBURGH: +10 points
2. HOUSTON: +8
3. BALTIMORE: +7
4. TEXAS: +6
5. NY YANKEES: +5
5. TAMPA BAY: +5
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. SAN FRANCISCO: -16 points
2. DETROIT: -11
3. TORONTO: -10
4. SAN DIEGO: -7
4. COLORADO: -7
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 6/16)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. CHICAGO CUBS: 35
2. HOUSTON: 34
3. TEXAS: 26
4. TAMPA BAY: 23
5. SAN FRANCISCO: 22
6. BALTIMORE: 21
7. SAN DIEGO: 19
8. MINNESOTA: 19
9. NY YANKEES: 18
10. MILWAUKEE: 17
11. CLEVELAND: 15
12. TORONTO: 14
13. LA DODGERS: 13
14. ATLANTA: 13
15. BOSTON: 12
16. NY METS: 10
17. ST LOUIS: 10
18. KANSAS CITY: 10
19. DETROIT: 8
20. CINCINNATI: 7
21. PITTSBURGH: 5
22. MIAMI: 3
23. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -2
24. PHILADELPHIA: -3
25. SEATTLE: -4
26. ARIZONA: -9
27. LA ANGELS: -10
28. COLORADO: -19
29. WASHINGTON: -21
30. ATHLETICS: -31
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are nine teams on a 3+ game winning streak (TB, BOS, BAL, HOU, SEA, TEX, ATH, PHI, MIA) and nine teams on a 3+ game losing skid (NYY, TOR, MIN, CLE, KC, CHW, LAA, NYM, WAS). This is easily a season high for both streak totals.
