MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for September 1:
A lot of bettors nowadays have turned their focus to the football field, with college football already underway and the pros starting on Thursday. To those who continue to push forward with their baseball betting for at least the rest of the regular season, I continue to provide you with the key bullpen system data that you’ve come to rely on. As I write this, I am watching the first games of the final month of the season, otherwise known as that sometimes dreaded phrase…September baseball.
Why do I use the term dreaded? Well, for one, favorite prices are often jacked up beyond recognition, taking much of their value away. For two, there are all kinds of motivation differences and pressure spots, which make it tough to gauge teams properly. With that in mind, I thought that along with the updated system records and highlights for this week, I would also share another interesting point of reference for your handicapping: strength of schedule the rest of the way, but done so by the opponents’ bullpen ratings they will be facing. Let’s get right to it.
Looking quickly at the bullpen systems results of last week and the highlights, there was a negative return on the easiest system this past week, a little over -4 units. Here are some of the highlights from the past seven days:
– Correlation system #1 had a nice week, as fading the teams with elite starting pitchers BUT negative bullpen ratings went 3-4 for -3.13 units.
– Correlation system #4, another fade angle against the bad starter/bullpen combo, had a very strong week, 2-11 for -5.62 units. Remember, FADING bad situations can be every bit as lucrative as backing good one’s.
– BETTER BULLPEN underdogs had another profitable week, going 19-24 for +2.3 units.
– BETTER SM BULLPEN teams looking to thwart at least 3-game losing streaks added +2.78 on just two opportunities, winning both.
Before the unveiling of all of this week’s system records update, I mentioned I would share with you what I found for every team in terms of their opponent bullpen rating the rest of the way. You’ll see below that I’ve calculated each team’s average opponent bullpen strength for their remaining games and have sorted them in order of toughest schedule to easiest. I’ve also noted how many of their remaining games in which they would enjoy a bullpen rating edge based upon today’s numbers. A few of my own thoughts on the subject? 1) These figures would suggest that the Reds could have some extra difficulty in trying to catch the Mets for a NL Wildcard spot. 2) Toronto and Boston face much tougher bullpen roads than the Yankees do. 3) The Dodgers and San Diego have similar remaining schedules, so bullpen strength doesn’t figure to be the deciding factor in who wins the NL West.
Team: Average Opponent BP Rating
COLORADO: 15.56 (#1 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 0 of 25G
CINCINNATI: 14.4 (#2 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 6 of 25G
ST LOUIS: 13.75 (#3 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 6 of 24G
TORONTO: 13.48 (#4 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 3 of 25G
ATHLETICS: 12 (#5 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 12 of 24G
BOSTON: 11.625 (#6 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 21 of 24G
MILWAUKEE: 11.625 (#7 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 21 of 24G
BALTIMORE: 11.52 (#8 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 3 of 25G
ARIZONA: 10.875 (#9 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 9 of 24G
CLEVELAND: 9.85185185185185 (#10 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 16 of 27G
TEXAS: 9.125 (#11 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 9 of 24G
SEATTLE: 8.16 (#12 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 3 of 25G
CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 8.08 (#13 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 3 of 25G
PHILADELPHIA: 7.68 (#14 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 13 of 25G
MINNESOTA: 6.61538461538461 (#15 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 4 of 26G
PITTSBURGH: 6.5 (#16 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 21 of 24G
KANSAS CITY: 6.44 (#17 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 25 of 25G
NY METS: 6.28 (#18 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 3 of 25G
LA ANGELS: 6.23076923076923 (#19 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 10 of 26G
DETROIT: 6.125 (#20 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 15 of 24G
HOUSTON: 5.64 (#21 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 18 of 25G
CHICAGO CUBS: 5.44 (#22 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 19 of 25G
WASHINGTON: 4.19230769230769 (#23 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 0 of 26G
TAMPA BAY: 3.96153846153846 (#24 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 26 of 26G
NY YANKEES: 2.68 (#25 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 16 of 25G
LA DODGERS: 2.24 (#26 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 22 of 25G
ATLANTA: 2.08 (#27 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 10 of 25G
SAN FRANCISCO: 0.24 (#28 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 12 of 25G
SAN DIEGO: -5.08 (#29 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 25 of 25G
MIAMI: -6.32 (#30 toughest of 30), Better BP Rtg in 13 of 25G
Remember, to fully implement these bullpen-focused strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 8/31:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 953-853 for -21.84 units and an ROI of -1.2% so far in the regular season. We gave back -4.23 units over the last seven days. Still, even with the -1.2% ROI, when you consider that over 1,800 games have qualified on such a simple, idealistic angle, the advantage of this angle over simply blindly playing teams is noteworthy. In fact, the average MLB bettor not using it and playing all MLB games this season would theoretically be down over -110 units, or -6.1% ROI. Thus, this methodology, without any other things considered, gives an advantage of 4.9%.
Although I always remind readers that easiest isn’t always best, the slightly negative returns on 1,806 games validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these on a daily basis, and as you can see, most or all are still faring very well. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles are new to the bullpen analysis and new to the daily reports, as of about a month ago now. I have named them correlation systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the updated record of these four angles we are now regularly tracking:
1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 57-54 for -12.08 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -10.9% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 147-200 for -50.44 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.5%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become a very reliable part of this report.
3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 307-184 for +18.45 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +3.8%. However, this angle has cooled off dramatically over the last few weeks.
4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 124-234 for -36.28 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.1%! We pushed over the -10% mark after a 2-11 for -5.62 units week.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 184-117 for +47.73 units, and an ROI of +15.9%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 102-49 for -7.78 units. We have been hovering the red for about a month now, like usual.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 117-39 for +17.71 units, a ROI of +11.4%.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are still unusually positive, 77-32 for +6.08 units. September is typically a month where we see more of these plays qualifying daily due to favorite overpricing.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. We gained +2.3 units last week to bring the season record to 383-409 for +41.32 units, ROI +5.2%!
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are back in the black, now 313-344 for +4.45 units.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 177-184 for -1.87 units (ROI -0.5%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 84-84, -5.1 units for the year.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 162-218 for -16.9 units, a ROI of -4.4%.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 209-165 for +4.57 units (ROI 1.2%).
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it has cooled lately after a strong start, 99-84 for -1.61 units. This angle has been a disappointment so far, but it has gotten back +11.08 units since the All-Star break.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings and the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams for the week.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 8/31)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN DIEGO: 3.1
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 3.33
3. BOSTON: 3.41
4. KANSAS CITY: 3.58
5. CLEVELAND: 3.59
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. WASHINGTON: 5.48
29. COLORADO: 5.25
28. LA ANGELS: 4.8
27. ATHLETICS: 4.8
26. ARIZONA: 4.68
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN DIEGO: 1.16
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.21
3. TAMPA BAY: 1.22
4. HOUSTON: 1.22
5. TEXAS: 1.23
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. COLORADO: 1.51
29. WASHINGTON: 1.49
28. BALTIMORE: 1.43
27. LA ANGELS: 1.42
26. ATHLETICS: 1.42
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.39
2. TAMPA BAY: 9.86
3. TORONTO: 9.85
4. BALTIMORE: 9.45
5. NY YANKEES: 9.41
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. DETROIT: 7.73
29. COLORADO: 7.75
28. KANSAS CITY: 7.78
27. ARIZONA: 7.9
26. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.94
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. KANSAS CITY: 0.83
2. NY YANKEES: 0.97
3. WASHINGTON: 1.08
4. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.08
5. ARIZONA: 1.08
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. MINNESOTA: 2.14
29. MIAMI: 1.99
28. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.97
27. TORONTO: 1.67
26. ATLANTA: 1.58
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday 8/25:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. TAMPA BAY: +12 points
2. KANSAS CITY: +10
3. NY YANKEES: +6
3. ARIZONA: +6
5. CLEVELAND: +4
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. MIAMI: -12 points
1. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -12
3. SAN DIEGO: -10
4. MINNESOTA: -8
5. PHILADELPHIA: -7
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 9/1)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. SAN DIEGO: 35
2. MILWAUKEE: 31
3. TAMPA BAY: 28
4. BOSTON: 15
5. KANSAS CITY: 15
6. PITTSBURGH: 15
7. CLEVELAND: 14
8. DETROIT: 13
9. ATHLETICS: 13
10. LA DODGERS: 12
11. HOUSTON: 12
12. CHICAGO CUBS: 12
13. LA ANGELS: 12
14. ST LOUIS: 11
15. SAN FRANCISCO: 11
16. ARIZONA: 7
17. NY YANKEES: 6
18. ATLANTA: 5
19. PHILADELPHIA: 4
20. TEXAS: 4
21. MIAMI: 2
22. CINCINNATI: 1
23. NY METS: 0
24. SEATTLE: 0
25. TORONTO: -1
26. BALTIMORE: -2
27. MINNESOTA: -5
28. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -7
29. WASHINGTON: -20
30. COLORADO: -31
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are two teams on a 3+ game winning streak (TB, TEX) and two teams on a 3+ game losing skid (ATH, WAS).
