With each passing baseball season, the bullpen seems to take on greater importance. In 2021, starters only averaged a tick above five innings, meaning more and more games are being decided late.
I lean on my bullpen ratings now more than ever. On top of an increased workload, the rule being used in extra innings — with a runner starting on second base — has enhanced the importance of getting hitters out and getting them out in dominant fashion. Therefore, I place a great deal of emphasis on relievers’ ability to strike hitters out.
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The basis for my bullpen power ratings includes strikeouts per nine innings, WHIP, save percentage and the overall talent level of a staff, among some other factors.
Why do I find bullpen handicapping so important? Easy. Take a look at some numbers from the 2021 season:
— There were 2,465 MLB games last season. Simply taking the team with the higher Steve Makinen Bullpen Power Rating would have produced a record of 1,358-1,049 (56.4%) for -8.16 units (not including the 58 games in which the teams had equal ratings). That represents a negative ROI of just 0.3%. While not a positive ROI, it still beats the juice, which averages about 5%, by a wide margin.
— In matchups in which one team had at least a 20-point difference in my bullpen power ratings — essentially top-five bullpens versus bottom-five bullpens — the higher-rated team was 143-70 (67.1%) for %plussign% 17.58 units with an ROI of 8.3%.
I adjust these ratings throughout the season, sometimes daily. If you have a good gauge for talent and keep an eye on the key statistics, you’ll be able to spot the mismatches or even make your own strength ratings. If you want to rely on my ratings, I publish them regularly at VSiN.com and weekly in Point Spread Weekly.
Here are some bullet points from my 2022 bullpen power ratings:
— The Brewers, one of the NL favorites, own the best bullpen in baseball, highlighted by closer Josh Hader and setup man Devin Williams. Their bullpen depth is also strong. The team regularly finds new arms who throw mid- to high-90s and breaking stuff to match. Alan Ashby and Jake Cousins, midseason call-ups in 2021, are prime examples.
— The Braves are No. 2 on the list. The defending champions added Kenley Jansen to an already loaded staff. I’m not a huge fan of tinkering with what was a dominant relief staff down the stretch and in the postseason. We’ll see how inserting a new closer plays out, especially since Will Smith had a .727 WHIP in 11 scoreless innings in the playoffs.
— I dropped the White Sox from No. 1 to No. 3 (and subtracted five ratings points) when they traded Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers on Friday. I still like what they have with Liam Hendriks and Kendall Graveman, among others, but Kimbrel’s moxie will be hard to replace.
— The White Sox’s loss was the Dodgers’ gain, as I added five points and moved the World Series favorites up to No. 4 on my list. Using Blake Treinen as a full-time closer was somewhat concerning considering his lack of experience in that role, but Kimbrel (372 career saves, 14.7 strikeouts per 9 innings) provides another option now.
— The Yankees round out my top five. Aroldis Chapman hasn’t been nearly as effective over the last two seasons, which is reflected by a gradual drop in my ratings. The Yankees have been No. 1 or No. 2 on this list in recent years.
— Besides the Braves and Dodgers, 11 other teams will be changing closers according to my unofficial count. That group includes the bottom five on my list. Alex Colome, now with the No. 30 Rockies, is a closer to watch after floundering with the Twins last season.
— Three potential playoff teams that made moves at closer are the Cardinals, with Giovanny Gallegos replacing Alex Reyes (29 saves but too inconsistent in 2021); the Phillies, with Corey Knebel taking over after a strong season in a setup role with the Dodgers; and the Padres, with Robert Suarez replacing Mark Melancon, now with the Diamondbacks.
Here’s a first look at my Steve Makinen Bullpen Power Ratings (with ratings points in parentheses):
1. Milwaukee Brewers (Power rating: 22)
Closer: Josh Hader
Setup man: Devin Williams
Others: Aaron Ashby, Brent Suter, Jake Cousins, Josh Lindblom
2. Atlanta Braves (20)
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Setup man: Will Smith
Others: Collin McHugh, Tyler Matzek, A.J. Minter, Luke Jackson
3. Chicago White Sox (20)
Closer: Liam Hendriks
Setup man: Kendall Graveman
Others: Garrett Crochet, Aaron Bummer, Ryan Burr, Joe Kelly
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (19)
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Setup man: Daniel Hudson
Others: Andrew Heaney, Brusdar Graterol, David Price, Blake Treinen
5. New York Yankees (18)
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Setup man: Jonathan Loaisiga
Others: Luis Severino, Chad Green, Joely Rodriguez, Clay Holmes
6. Los Angeles Angels (16)
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Setup man: Mike Mayers
Others: Ryan Tepera, Jose Suarez, Aaron Loup, Michael Lorenzen
7. Toronto Blue Jays (12)
Closer: Jordan Romano
Setup man: Tim Mayza
Others: Nate Pearson, Yimi Garcia, Ross Stripling, Julian Merryweather
8. New York Mets (9)
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Setup man: Trevor May
Others: Seth Lugo, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, Felix Pena
9. San Francisco Giants (9)
Closer: Jake McGee
Setup man: Camilo Doval
Others: Tyler Rogers, Jarlin Garcia, Sammy Long, Kervin Castro
10. Houston Astros (8)
Closer: Ryan Pressly
Setup man: Ryne Stanek
Others: Hector Neris, Rafael Montero, Phil Maton, Blake Taylor
11. Tampa Bay Rays (7)
Closer: Andrew Kittredge
Setup man: JT Chargois
Others: Pete Fairbanks, Matt Wisler, Colin Poche, Jeffrey Springs
12. Miami Marlins (6)
Closer: Dylan Floro
Setup man: Anthony Bender
Others: Jesus Luzardo, Richard Bleier, Steven Okert, Anthony Bass
13. Seattle Mariners (6)
Closer: Paul Sewald
Setup man: Drew Steckenrider
Others: Ken Giles, Diego Castillo, Andres Munoz, Justus Sheffield
14. St. Louis Cardinals (6)
Closer: Giovanny Gallegos
Setup man: Genesis Cabrera
Others: Alex Reyes, Jordan Hicks, Drew VerHagen, Nick Wittgren
15. Philadelphia Phillies (5)
Closer: Corey Knebel
Setup man: Jose Alvarado
Others: Brad Hand, Seranthony Dominguez, Connor Brogdon, Bailey Falter
16. Boston Red Sox (4)
Closer: Matt Barnes
Setup man: Jake Diekman
Others: Garrett Whitlock, Darwinzon Hernandez, Josh Taylor, Matt Strahm
17. Minnesota Twins (4)
Closer: Taylor Rogers
Setup man: Jorge Alcala
Others: Tyler Duffey, Caleb Thielbar, Joe Smith, Trevor Megill
18. Cleveland Guardians (3)
Closer: Emmanuel Clase
Setup man: Bryan Shaw
Others: James Karinchak, Nick Sandlin, Trevor Stephan, Sam Hentges
19. San Diego Padres (3)
Closer: Robert Suarez
Setup man: Dinelson Lamet
Others: Pierce Johnson, Emilio Pagan, Nick Martinez, Craig Stammen
20. Detroit Tigers (2)
Closer: Gregory Soto
Setup man: Michael Fulmer
Others: Andrew Chafin, Tyler Alexander, Kyle Funkhouser, Bryan Garcia
21. Cincinnati Reds (1)
Closer: Hunter Strickland
Setup man: Luis Cessa
Others: Lucas Sims, Art Warren, Tony Santillan, Dauri Moreta
22. Texas Rangers (0)
Closer: Joe Barlow
Setup man: Greg Holland
Others: Taylor Hearn, Spencer Patton, Brandon Workman, Jose Leclerc
23. Oakland Athletics (-1)
Closer: Lou Trivino
Setup man: Deolis Guerra
Others: A.J. Puk, Daulton Jefferies, Dany Jimenez, Domingo Acevedo
24. Arizona Diamondbacks (-3)
Closer: Mark Melancon
Setup man: Ian Kennedy
Others: Caleb Smith, Oliver Perez, J.B. Wendelken, J.B. Bukauskas
25. Kansas City Royals (-5)
Closer: Scott Barlow
Setup man: Josh Staumont
Others: Carlos Hernandez, Amir Garrett, Domingo Tapia, Dylan Coleman
26. Chicago Cubs (-7)
Closer: Rowan Wick
Setup man: David Robertson
Others: Adbert Alzolay, Mychal Givens, Chris Martin, Alec Mills
27. Pittsburgh Pirates (-9)
Closer: David Bednar
Setup man: Anthony Banda
Others: Chris Stratton, Heath Hembree, Sam Howard, Austin Brice
28. Baltimore Orioles (-10)
Closer: Cole Sulser
Setup man: Tanner Scott
Others: Tyler Wells, Keegan Akin, Paul Fry, Jorge Lopez
29. Washington Nationals (-11)
Closer: Tanner Rainey
Setup man: Kyle Finnegan
Others: Steve Cishek, Sean Doolittle, Patrick Murphy, Luis Avilan
30. Colorado Rockies (-12)
Closer: Alex Colome
Setup man: Carlos Estevez
Others: Daniel Bard, Robert Stephenson, Chad Kuhl, Tyler Kinley
