MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Systems Update:
The DraftKings and Circa betting splits features on VSiN.com are always a huge page view draw for our subscribers. Many recognizable VSiN personalities offer insights on this unique feature regularly for our followers, and Bill Adee is known for routinely sharing his thoughts on them in the daily morning newsletter. Why have they become such a big deal?
Well, for one, it seems that bettors are enamored with knowing what their cohorts are partaking in. Secondly, for the most part, the majority bettors at DraftKings don’t win. Fading them can often be as sound a betting strategy as there is. In my own experience with studying these splits over the last couple of years, I have come to this conclusion. That said, there are always some specific situations in all of the sports in which they do win (or lose more definitively), and I love finding these spots and sharing them with readers. I call these spots “Betting Splits Systems.” This article is an update to the MLB systems I’ve been offering. To summarize, they have remained remarkably consistent, and like recent years, bettors are off to a pretty good March/April start in 2025.
Top MLB Resources:
Unfortunately, there is not enough data from Circa from the early season to make any statistically sound assumptions, so I will save that for my next update, probably at the all-star break. The theory here is that because Circa services larger and perhaps more sharp bettors, the findings will be uniquely different than the findings from DK.
As I have for all of the other sports, I have updated a set of actionable betting systems that VSiN Pro Subscribers can take advantage of for the rest of the season. We will continually track these systems and share the daily plays in our MLB Analytics Reports as well.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
Through Monday 4/7, this majority has started the 2025 season on a 91-63 (59.1%) pace, good for +7.2 units, and an ROI of +4.7%. Recent history shows that in each of the last two seasons, bettors have started well, only to fade once the calendar turned to May, so this “hot start” is not unusual.
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
Through Monday 4/7, this majority has also started the 2025 season well, going 93-60 (60.8%) for +12.23 units, and an ROI of +8.0%. Again, consider the results of the early seasons of 2023 and 2024 and when perhaps we should not trust bettors any longer.
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Through Monday 4/7, this majority has gone 77-75 (50.7%) for +13.48 units and an ROI of 8.9% to start the 2025 season. Another very good start, but if this were to continue all season, it would represent a 15% swing on ROI, clearly not sustainable.
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Through Monday 4/7, this majority group is 78-71 (52.4%) for -4.73 units and an ROI of -3.2%. Although this is the first majority group that has endured negative units for 2025 thus far, the -3.2% is still an improvement over the approximate -6.0% loss over the last two full seasons.
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
Through Monday 4/7, this majority group is 71-74 (49.0%) for -10.4 units and an ROI of -7.2%. This is the first area of concentration in which 2025 season bettors are doing worse than their average pace. This can easily be explained in that majority bettors are favoring Overs on totals by about a 4:1 ratio, and the season is off to a low-scoring start.
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
Through Monday 4/7, this majority group is 68-76 (47.2%) for -15.6 units and an ROI of -10.8% to start the 2025 season. Majority bettors made a major improvement in this area from 2023 to 2024, but it seems they may be going back on that this year. We’ll continue to follow.
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
Whenever I write about these DraftKings Betting Splits, I like to remind readers why I have adopted the strategy of following this subject matter. It was about two years ago that I set out to study the college football betting splits data provided on VSiN.com by DraftKings. I felt that a book like DraftKings, known for servicing all levels of recreational bettors, and now the #1 book in terms of market share, providing this type of data would offer a ton of great betting opportunities if savvy bettors knew how to interpret the numbers. As it turns out, I was right, but by somewhat different means than I thought I would find.
Most of the theories I have believed about public bettors for all of the other sports came to fruition with baseball as well, specifically that they love favorites and they love Overs as compared to Unders on totals. In fact, majority handle bettors opted for favorites in 80.4% of the games and Overs in 73.3% of the games in 2024. This is dramatic, particularly on the aspect of totals, as in one sense it doesn’t jive, as bettors often take favorites because the pitching is superior, particularly the starter. Yet they are still hoping for a lot of runs. Many of the systems you’ll see below go against the grain and side more with underdogs and Unders. I also feel that the improved ROI numbers for bettors this season are a direct reflection of this change in strategy.
One side note on what I just detailed regarding the public’s love for favorites. On games featuring a road team favored so far in 2024, the majority handle has opted to back the road favorite 93.4% of the time!
For those of you who have not read my similar analysis in the past for football & basketball, I basically tried to analyze the records of the “majority bettors” at DraftKings and the side/total they preferred for games. I break it down further sometimes by percentage of majority, by different line ranges, and by some other variables. There are two fields of analysis for each wagering option that DraftKings shares the data for both sides and totals: 1) handle 2) number of bets. These can produce varied results, but I subscribe to the theory that total handle is a little less “public” than the total number of bets. The former tends to include more serious bettors, while the latter works in a lot of “weekend warriors.”
In the following betting splits systems I have developed, I will share with you some situational spots in which bettors were far worse or better than the average numbers shown above. These will provide some consistent opportunities to wager on or against throughout the rest of the season. We will continue to share these opportunities daily in our popular MLB Analytics Reports. If you haven’t been using these for MLB or any of the other sports we offer, I highly recommend adding it to your MLB handicapping arsenal. They are loaded with great handicapping stats, trends, and of course, the popular bullpen systems that I have been sharing with readers for the past few years on VSiN. My son AJ and I not only share the key trends and systems, we also tell you exactly which games meet the criteria every day!!!
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
These 90% majorities are 3-2 for -1.38 units to start the 2025 season
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
These 51-59% majorities are 13-11 for +1.01 units to start the 2025 season
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
For 2025, these huge home favorites with majority handle backing at 5-1 for +2.42 units through 4/7
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
There has only been one play on this through 4/7 and it is 1-0.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
These majorities are off to an uncustomary torrid start in 2025, 42-18 for +18.13 units in the first week-and-a-half
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season, when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
1. Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023-24 were 236-168 (58.4%) for +28.32 units and an ROI of +7.0%.
For 2025 so far, these majority road bettors are struggling, 35-39 for -13.56 units through 4/7
2. Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and an ROI of -12.5%
3. Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 were just 393-334 (54.1%) for -90.59 units and an ROI of -12.5%
4. Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the ’23 season.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for UNDER the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
These majorities are 1-1 on totals so far in 2025
The betting splits on VSiN.com are essentially running live and will change in the days and hours before game time. If you adopt any of these strategies this season, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest numbers. In the spirit of continuous improvement, we have redesigned and expanded the VSiN betting splits page, the most popular destination on VSiN.com.
The data, which we get directly from DraftKings Sportsbook, and now Circa Sportsbook as well, is updated every five minutes. We ping their databases and see what data has changed and then indicate the change with an arrow next to the percentage.
Also, if you want to see the opening line and the line history, click on the visiting team’s logo. The updates are timestamped. A nice new touch is that – if the game is over – you will get a summary that includes the final score, Total result, season Over/Under record for each team, and you can compare the result to what Steve Makinen’s estimated score was.
Unlimited access to betting splits and the MLB Analytics Reports is available to VSiN Pro subscribers.
