MLB Extreme Stats System update: Introducing the new VSiN Analytics feature
As the director of analytics at VSiN, my goal has always been to make our proprietary data and analysis as timely and actionable as possible.
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With that in mind, we will introduce on Friday a new feature for VSiN Pro Subscribers. The VSiN MLB Analytics Report will be posted daily with a list of games that qualify under the betting systems I’ve developed, including the MLB Bullpen Systems. The report will point out the top situational records applicable that day as well as analysis of my game-by-game strength ratings.
The report should take a lot of the legwork out of the handicapping process for readers who have expressed their belief in the information offered, but they are often short on time or overwhelmed by the volume of data. (Look for it on VSiN.com no later than 1 p.m. ET.)
We plan on doing this same report for college and pro football, as well as college and pro basketball, once those seasons arrive, and we’ll be asking for your feedback along the way.
To get the ball rolling, I have updated my MLB “extreme stats” systems to validate the results so we use the findings for the rest of the season.
Over the course of a six-month, 162-game Major League Baseball schedule, a lot of extreme statistical performances can arise for each team. Whether it be the number of runs they score in any given game, the hits or home runs they produce, or the rare extremes that their pitching staffs can generate, these oddities just happen, and of course, for some teams more than others. Do these rare happenings have any carryover effect for the follow-up game? That’s something I set out to uncover as I analyzed extreme betting systems in MLB.
Using some foundation principles as the basis for them, take a look at these seven betting concepts I was able to uncover in August last season after analyzing my MLB database for the prior 5+ seasons.
Again, these systems and the qualifying plays for each day’s games will be offered in the VSiN MLB Analytics Report, starting Friday.
1. Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 302-268 (53.4%) for +48.11 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 8.4%. In football, it’s called any given Sunday. In baseball, it could easily be termed any given day. One blowout loss hasn’t amounted to a whole lot for home teams, as they are easily able to rebound, outscoring the opponents 4.56-4.41 on average in this “revenge” spot.
2. Nine is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Expanding a bit on #1 above, the number nine in terms of runs scored in a game has proven to be a strong indicator for being able to fade a team in the next game profitably. Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting. This data does include games where two teams scored nine runs or more against one another in the prior game, so ignore those situations.
3. Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season. This isn’t exactly “extremes” in terms of run totals, but with these high amounts of data samples analyzed, they have proven to be reliably predictive indicators.
4. Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%. Again, this run total doesn’t exactly scream “extreme,” but these hosts are prone to returning to normal against the concept of overpricing in many cases.
5. Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 783-654 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.54 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%. Even stronger, home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 399-324 (55.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +38.97 units, for an R.O.I. of 5.4%. These are examples of positive fundamental concepts in baseball that show that teams’ hitters typically bounce back well at home, where they are more familiar with the conditions.
6. Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 267-123 (68.5%) for +55.48 units and an R.O.I. of 14.2%! There is obviously a lot of substance to this one in that this team is playing at home, it is hitting well, and the experts expect these teams to win.
7. Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 232-181 (56.2%) for +51.2 units and an R.O.I. of 12.4% since the start of the 2018 season. This is a good example of why baseball bettors need to be able to flush unusual results from their memories and not expect them to continue, particularly when the team is backed by the stability of playing at home.
