First Five Innings Best Bets for Thursday, April 4th
Welcome to my biweekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
Betting the first five innings is a way to simplify the handicap. The bullpens should have very little impact, and starting pitchers dominate the analysis. The randomness of relief pitchers altering the outcome is all but eliminated, which makes me feel more secure in the handicap.
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This article will be my way of working my baseball handicapping muscles for the first time over the course of a whole season. Handicapping a moneyline sport such as this presents unique challenges, and I look forward to experiencing those in this column.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.
Throughout the season I will be keeping track of the results of this article, which you can view here.
Weekly Recap
Every week I think it would be beneficial to go through some observations of the week that was, and look at some of the best and worst performers when it comes to first five inning performances.
The primary observation for me is the struggles of New York Yankees starter Nestor Cortes. On Tuesday I correctly assumed that Arizona would be able to get to him early, but took the loss because New York was not able to crack Zac Gallen.
Through two starts Cortes has allowed 7 earned runs for a 6.30 ERA. He is getting somewhat unlucky on balls in play (.353) but not to the point where it explains away his struggles. Cortes was a name that I had circled to fade early in the season, and so far that theory has been correct. New York is 0-2 in the first five innings of his starts to this point of the season.
It is also worth pointing out the interesting dynamic developing in Houston.
The Astros are one of the best first five inning bets to start the season. Houston is 6-1 in the first five innings thus far this season with profit of $490 according to VSiN’s first five innings analyzer. Yet, the team is 2-5 on the season.
Through seven games the Astros’ bullpen has struggled. Relievers have a 6.00 ERA and 6.79 FIP. We saw an example of that in their second game with the Blue Jays when Josh Hader gave up a two-run home run to Davis Schneider in the ninth inning.
It is a great example of why I enjoy betting the first five innings instead of whole games. The volatility of bullpens and late innings can drive a bettor insane. Limiting the action to the starting pitchers takes away some of the variance that can happen late.
MLB Betting Tools
MLB Odds | Makinen’s MLB Power Ratings | First 5 Innings Analyzer
First Five Innings Best Bets
Cleveland Guardians (+130) at Minnesota Twins (-155) | Total: 7.5 (UN -115)
Tanner Bibee vs Pablo Lopez
Tanner Bibee’s first start of the season went as poorly as it could go, especially when you consider the opponent. Bibee walked five batters, and was tagged for six hits and three earned runs in just four innings of work. The free passes stick out like a sore thumb, but Umpire Scorecards gave umpire John Tumpane a below average grade on accuracy that day. Bibee walked just 7.7% of batters last season. That issue should correct itself.
On the other end we get Pablo Lopez who continues to amaze. He went seven innings against Kansas City last week and absolutely bamboozled the Royals. Lopez struck out seven and allowed just four hits, one of which was a solo home run. That builds on an elite 2023 in which he posted 3.66 ERA and 3.33 FIP.
Both guys are trustworthy here. Bibee is coming off a tough outing, but he is much better than what he showed in Oakland. One could make the argument Lopez is undervalued given his underlying metrics from last season. We also get a somewhat chilly day in Minnesota, and in an average ballpark for both hitters and pitchers I would expect few runs early.
Bet Recommendation: F5 UNDER 4 (-125)
