First Five Innings Best Bets for Tuesday, April 9th
Welcome to my biweekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.
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Throughout the season I will be keeping track of the results of this article, which you can view here.
Before diving into today’s selections, let’s shout out some pitchers that bettors who are tracking first five performances should keep an eye on.
The first is Spencer Turnbull.
In two starts for Philadelphia the former Tiger has yet to give up an earned run. In 11.0 innings of work Turnbull has struck out 31.7% of hitters faced and walked just 2.4%. His FIP (1.42) suggests what we’re seeing is legit, and the Phillies are a perfect 2-0 in the first five innings in his starts this season.
Tyler Anderson also deserves some love here.
The Angels lefty has spun 14.0 innings in two starts thus far, and in those frames has not allowed an earned run. His changeup has become effective once again, and he has allowed just two barrels in 40 batted balls. Anderson was an underdog in both those contests, and likely will be again in his next outing.
MLB Betting Tools
MLB Odds | Makinen’s MLB Power Ratings | First 5 Innings Analyzer
First Five Innings Best Bets
Miami Marlins (+154) at New York Yankees (-185) | Total: 8 (OV -115)
A.J. Puk vs Carlos Rodon
This has been a nightmare start to the season for A.J. Puk, and it won’t be getting better today. Puk has had a massive issue with command in his first two starts. He’s walked 25.7% of the batters that he has faced, and only 37.2% of his pitches to this point have found the strike zone.
Command issues are not what you want when facing this Yankees lineup with Juan Soto. New York is second in walk rate this season (12.2%) and third outside-zone swing rate (23.6%). In other words, this group won’t swing at nonsense. The Yankees should have plenty of traffic on the basepaths early against Puk, and they should be able to capitalize on that opportunity.
There is a slight chance that Carlos Rodon regresses and burns me here – Rodon has a 2.79 ERA but a 6.03 FIP – but the Marlins are an abysmal offensive team. They rank 30th in wRC+ (61) and 29th in wOBA (.264). Rodon is likely due for a fall from grace, but that will happen against better competition.
Bet Recommendation: Yankees F5 -0.5 (-125)
Seattle Mariners (-105) at Toronto Blue Jays (-115) | Total: 8
George Kirby vs Chris Bassitt
George Kirby is a perfect example of why ERA is not a great metric to evaluate pitcher performance. Through two starts Kirby has a 5.23 ERA, but much of that stems from his last start against Cleveland. In that outing Kirby allowed 9 hits and 6 earned runs in 3.2 innings of work. Luck was not on his side in that outing though, as the Guardians hit .450 on balls in play despite Kirby only giving up three hard hit balls.
Kirby is an awesome pitcher. His FIP (2.17) and xERA (2.37) indicate the truth behind his two starts this season. He is limiting walks (4.3%) and getting unlucky on balls in play (.323 BABIP) while staying on track with his strikeout numbers from last season (21.3%). That’s enough to invest in his bounceback today against Toronto.
Seattle also gets the benefit of facing Chris Bassitt today. The numbers are not as kind to Bassitt. His FIP (6.02) suggests a level of legitimacy when it comes to his ERA (7.71). Bassitt has walked 10.4% of hitters faced, and he is allowing a high rate of hard contact (45.5%). The Mariners have enough here to be leading once five frames conclude.
Bet Recommendation: Mariners -0.5 F5 (+125)
