MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, April 12.
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2:10 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Chris Paddack has been torched through two starts this season, allowing 13 total runs, 12 of which earned, through 7 2/3 innings, bringing his lifetime ERA through four season with the Minnesota Twins to 5.41 while Tigers starting pitcher Jackson Jobe is looking to hone in his command, hurling just nine innings in his first two starts this season with nine walks and five runs allowed. Of benefit to Jobe is the Tigers’ bullpen owning the second-best bullpen ERA from July 1 of 2024 through Friday. The Twins enter the series 25th in runs per game, averaging less than 3.4 runs per game.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline +103 (Greg’s Handicap Tiger -114)
2:15 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
While St. Louis starting pitcher Miles Mikolas’ fielding independent of the past few seasons points towards regression, last season supplying with a 5.35 ERA with a 4.24 fielding independent, mainly because he only gave up 1.3 walks per nine innings, but gives up lots of hard contact with not giving out a lot of walks. Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez has massive home and road splits last season, posting a 2.21 ERA at home compared to a 5.02 ERA away from home with just 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.2)
3:05 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren has struggled at the big league level with three runs or more allowed in six of his eight career appearances and a lifetime 9.09 ERA while Giants starting pitcher Jordan Hicks has allowed only three runs across two starts in 11 1/3 innings this season, but has a 4.40 fielding independent with 3.7 walks per nine innings since joining the Giants last season.
Picks: Giants +120 and Total Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Giants -104 and Total 9.3)
4:10 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starting pitcher Martin Perez has allowed just one run in his first two starts of the season, but is allowing 3.6 walks per nine innings and has never been a wipeout pitcher, generating just 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings in his career. Red Sox starting pitcher Richard Fitts has made just six career starts and has pitched to a good amount of contact with just 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He is backed by an offense averaging nearly 5.1 runs per game, ranking seventh in the league.
Pick: Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.4)
6:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Royals starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen in 2024 had one of the luckiest seasons for a starting pitcher in quite some time, posting a 4.89 fielding independent with 6.7 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings, but only a 3.31 ERA despite that while newly acquired Guardians starting pitcher Luis Ortiz had a 3.32 ERA with only 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings with the Pittsburgh Pirates last season. Aiding Ortiz is a Guardians bullpen that had the lowest ERA in the league last season. The Royals entered this series averaging less than 3.5 runs per game, which ranked 22nd in the league.
Picks: Guardians Moneyline -117 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Guardians -139 and Total 8.4)
9:40 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers starting pitcher Kumar Rocker has seen a large dip in his strikeout numbers in his first two starts of the season, generating just four strikeouts across eight innings this season while surrendering two home runs while Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo might be due for some regression, racking up a 10-3 record with a 2.97 ERA since the start of the 2024 season, but owning a 3.46 fielding independent in the process with only 1.1 walks per nine innings, but only generating 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.6)
