MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, April 7.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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7:40 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Michael Lorenzen was one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball last season, posting a 4.89 FIP with 6.7 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings, yet managing a 3.31 ERA despite those underlying numbers. On the other side, Simeon Woods Richardson has been about as league-average as it gets since the start of the 2024 season, putting up a 4.18 ERA and 4.03 FIP with eight strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Twins vs. Royals Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.1)
9:40 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen has posted a 3.00 ERA in regular season home games since the beginning of the 2023 season. Orioles starter Zach Eflin has shown great command since the start of 2024, walking just 1.3 batters per nine innings, but he’s also allowed 1.2 home runs per nine with a 3.79 FIP. He faces a Diamondbacks lineup that leads the league in runs per game since the 2024 season began.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -116 (Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -134)
10:05 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Athletics
Luis Severino has allowed just five earned runs across 12 innings in his first two starts of the season, but the warning signs are there—he’s given up two home runs and five walks in that span, resulting in a 3.75 ERA and a 5.11 FIP. The A’s saw each of their first three games in Sacramento go over the total, with the new park playing much more hitter-friendly than Oakland. Padres starter Michael King has lasted just 7 2/3 innings across his first two starts, issuing five walks in the process.
Pick: Padres vs. Athletics Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.3)
