MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, August 11.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker has a solid 3.53 ERA but a 4.99 fielding independent, with 6.8 strikeouts and 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 16 of his 20 starts this season, posting a 2.34 ERA with one home run and 2.7 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -122 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -142)
7:05 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren has a 4.44 ERA with 4.2 walks per nine innings, but is backed by a lineup ranking third in the league in scoring at just under 5.1 runs per game. Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews has a 5.17 ERA and is backed by a bullpen ranked 24th in ERA at 4.33.
Picks: Yankees Run Line -1.5 +125 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -1.5 +104 and Total 9.1)
7:40 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Pirates starting pitcher Andrew Heaney has struggled on the road, posting a 4.77 ERA overall with 6.3 strikeouts and 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings, which jumps to a 6.55 ERA and 2.3 home runs per nine on the road. Brewers starting pitcher José Quintana has a 3.57 ERA but appears due for regression with a 4.72 fielding independent, 6.4 strikeouts, and 3.3 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Tigers starting pitcher Chris Paddack has had a rocky season with a 4.91 ERA, 6.5 strikeouts, and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 27th in run production at 3.8 runs per game. On the mound for Chicago, reliever Elvis Peguero is being recalled from AAA to open for Tyler Alexander, who owns a 4.52 ERA across multiple teams this season. Detroit ranks seventh in road scoring at 4.7 runs per game.
Picks: Tigers Moneyline -129 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -159 and Total 8.9)
Washington Nationals vs. Kansas City Royals
Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli impressed in his first start of the season with 4 1/3 scoreless innings and now faces a Royals lineup that ranks last in home production at 3.2 runs per game. Royals starting pitcher Bailey Falter owns a 4.14 ERA and is backed by a bullpen ranked 11th in ERA at 3.77.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.4)
7:45 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Rockies starting pitcher Chase Dollander takes the mound for the first time since July 6, bringing a 6.66 ERA with two home runs and 4.4 walks allowed per nine innings this season. Cardinals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas has a 5.11 ERA with 6.2 strikeouts and 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings but faces a Rockies lineup that ranks last in road scoring at under three runs per game. The Rockies bullpen ranks 29th in ERA at 5.50.
Picks: Cardinals Run Line -1.5 +104 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -1.5 -133 and Total 9.6)
8:05 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
Since the start of July, the Rangers offense has averaged over 4.9 runs per game in their past 34 games, giving plenty of support to starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi has a 1.38 ERA with just five home runs allowed in 111 innings this season, and only two earned runs allowed in his past five starts. He’s backed by a bullpen ranked fourth in ERA at 3.34, while the Diamondbacks bullpen ranks 27th at 4.86. Arizona starter Ryne Nelson has been solid with a 3.20 ERA and one home run allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Rangers Run Line -1.5 +135 (Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -1.5 +101)
10:05 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics
Athletics starting pitcher Jeffrey Springs has seen his strikeouts drop to a career-low 7.3 per nine innings. While he has a 3.89 ERA, his fielding independent is 4.61 with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine. Rays starter Ryan Pepiot has similar stats—a 3.77 ERA and 4.58 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine—but is supported by a much stronger bullpen. The Athletics bullpen ranks 28th with a 5.14 ERA, while the Rays are ninth at 3.73.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -102 (Greg’s Handicap: Rays -126)
