MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, August 16.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
4:10 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean is making his MLB debut. While he has a 2.45 ERA at the minor league level this season, he is issuing four walks per nine innings. He faces a Seattle lineup that leads the American League in road scoring with nearly five runs per game. Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo has a 3.08 ERA with 8.9 strikeouts and 1.6 walks allowed per nine innings, while being supported by a bullpen whose 3.64 ERA ranks eighth in the league.
Picks: Mariners -125 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Mariners -135 and Total 8.4)
6:40 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Brewers starting pitcher Quinn Priester might see a bit of regression on his 3.49 ERA, posting a 4.21 fielding independent with 7.2 strikeouts and three walks allowed per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Zack Littell is pitching to a lot of contact, 3.60 ERA, posting a 4.72 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs and 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Brewers lineup that leads the team in scoring away from home with over 5.7 runs per game.
Picks: Brewers Moneyline -125 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -137 and Total 9.8)
7:10 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Cleveland Guardians
Braves starting pitcher Joey Wentz has been good in this recent sample size with the Braves, posting a 2.83 ERA with just one home run allowed in 28 1/3 innings across six appearances. But he still has a season-long 5.03 ERA with 4.3 walks per nine innings allowed. Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi owns a 4.11 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Braves lineup that is 21st in scoring with under 4.1 runs per game. Since June 1, the Guardians’ bullpen ranks sixth in the league in bullpen ERA at 3.19, while the Braves are 22nd in that span with a 4.25 ERA.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -112 (Greg’s Handicap Guardians -139)
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
White Sox starting pitcher Sean Burke has a 4.26 ERA, but has been at his best recently with two runs or fewer allowed in 10 of his past 13 starts. He faces a Royal lineup whose 3.4 runs per game at home this season, which ranks last in the league. Royals starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen has a 4.61 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings. At home, his ERA falls to 3.79 and the White Sox are 27th in scoring with 3.8 runs per game.
Pick: Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.7)
7:15 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Though Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried has a 2.94 ERA overall this season, he has allowed at least three runs in each of his past six starts. Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray appears due for positive regression on his 4.06 ERA, posting a 3.11 fielding independent with 1.5 walks allowed and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. His ERA is 3.33 at home compared to 5.23 away from home.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline +131 (Greg’s Handicap Cardinals +104)
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews appears due for positive regression on his 5.11 ERA with a 3.34 fielding independent with 11.7 strikeouts to 2.3 walks per nine innings. He is backed up by a bullpen that is 24th in ERA at 4.33, and much of the team’s lineup was traded at the trade deadline. Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize has a 3.50 ERA with 7.9 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -108 (Greg’s Handicap Tigers -132)
10:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics
Angels starting pitcher Tyler Anderson has given up a lot of hard contact this season, posting a 4.63 ERA with 1.9 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings allowed for a 5.51 fielding independent. He is backed up by a bullpen that is 27th in ERA at 4.79. Athletics starting pitcher Luis Morales is making his second career start, issuing five walks in 2 2/3 innings against the Baltimore Orioles, but also had four strikeouts and no runs allowed.
Picks: Athletics Moneyline -110 and Over 10.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Athletics -146 and Total 10.7)
