MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, August 18.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
2:20 PM Eastern (Game One of Doubleheader)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Though the Brewers had their 14-game win streak broken on Sunday, they send Freddy Peralta to the mound on Monday. Peralta owns a 2.90 ERA with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings and is supported by a lineup that leads the league in road scoring with nearly 5.8 runs per game. Cubs starting pitcher Cade Horton enters on a five-start run in which he has allowed just one run across 28 1/3 innings, but his 3.07 ERA appears due for regression with a 3.74 fielding independent and only 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. This comes on a day when the wind should be blowing out at Wrigley Field.
Picks: Brewers Moneyline Game One +109 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -122 and Total 9.7)
6:40 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes has been magnificent with a 2.13 ERA and just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. The rest of the team, however, is rough, with the Pirates ranking last in the league in scoring at fewer than 3.6 runs per game. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman has a 3.79 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.5 walks allowed per nine innings, but he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 13 of his past 15 starts.
Picks: Blue Jays Moneyline +103 and Under 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Blue Jays -104 and Total 6.7)
7:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has had a sneaky good season with a 1.43 ERA, allowing only two home runs in 69 1/3 innings across 11 starts. Red Sox starter Dustin May looked solid in his first two starts in Boston, allowing three runs in 9 2/3 innings with 12 strikeouts. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks third in ERA at 3.44. Meanwhile, the Orioles offense is second-to-last in the American League in scoring with 3.6 runs per game, tied with the Chicago White Sox.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline -113 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap -134 and Total 8.2)
7:15 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starter Spencer Strider has struggled this season with a 4.69 ERA, but he is still getting 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a White Sox lineup that ranks last in road scoring with 3.6 runs per game. Yoendrys Gómez is coming off a debut where he allowed just one run in five innings. Before being called up, he posted a 2.12 ERA with 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple-A Charlotte. The Braves lineup, meanwhile, ranks 20th in home scoring at 4.3 runs per game.
Pick: White Sox vs. Braves Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.9)
7:40 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals
The Royals rank last in home scoring this season with fewer than 3.5 runs per game, but have gotten effective starts from Michael Wacha. He has just 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings but carries a 3.35 ERA with 0.8 home runs and 2.4 walks allowed per nine innings. The Rangers rank 25th in scoring at fewer than 4.1 runs per game. Starter Jack Leiter has a 3.94 ERA but has allowed two runs or fewer in five straight starts and is backed by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA at 3.62.
Picks: Royals Moneyline -125 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Royals -136 and Total 8.4)
9:38 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starter Víctor Mederos allowed three runs in four innings in his first start of the season against the Dodgers. In the minors this year, he posted a 3.41 ERA with 7.4 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. Reds starter Brady Singer has a 4.31 ERA but is allowing only one home run per nine innings and has held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in 13 of his past 16 starts.
Picks: Reds Moneyline -105 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Reds -134 and Total 8.6)
9:40 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starter Nestor Cortes has a 5.71 ERA overall this season but has looked better in his two starts with San Diego, allowing three runs in 9 1/3 innings. He is backed by a Padres bullpen that leads the league in ERA at 2.98. Giants starter Robbie Ray has a 2.98 ERA, though his 3.73 fielding independent and 3.4 walks per nine innings suggest some shakiness. Offensively, the Giants rank 24th in scoring with fewer than 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Giants vs. Padres Under 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.2)
