MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, August 22.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
7:05 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starting pitcher Cade Povich has struggled this season, posting a 4.98 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 1.3 walks per nine innings. At home, that balloons to a 6.05 ERA with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s also backed by a bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA at 4.70. The Astros bullpen, on the other hand, ranks eighth at 3.77, but starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. has had his own issues, carrying a 6.90 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 5.9 walks per nine innings.
Picks: Astros Moneyline +105 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Astros -114 and Total 9.6)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starter Max Fried has been solid overall with a 3.26 ERA and just 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he comes in struggling, having allowed at least three runs in seven straight starts. Red Sox starter Brayan Bello has a 3.32 ERA but a 4.23 fielding independent, and he faces a Yankees lineup where eight of nine starters in Thursday’s game had 17+ home runs this season.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline +152 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Red Sox +143 and Total 8.8)
7:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Royals rookie Ryan Bergert has quietly put together a strong debut season with a 2.75 ERA, 8.6 strikeouts, and just one home run allowed per nine innings. He’s supported by a lineup that ranks 28th in scoring at 3.8 runs per game. Tigers starter Casey Mize owns a 3.63 ERA with 8.3 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings, backed by a lineup that ranks 19th in scoring since the All-Star Break at just under 4.4 runs per game.
Pick: Royals vs. Tigers Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.1)
7:35 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas is pitching to heavy contact, posting just 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings with a 4.99 ERA and 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. Adrian Houser, acquired from the White Sox, has struggled since joining the Rays, putting up a 5.17 ERA in three starts. That came after a strong 2.10 ERA with Chicago, though his 3.32 fielding independent and 6.2 strikeouts per nine pointed to regression.
Picks: Rays Moneyline -125 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Rays -148 and Total 9.4)
8:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starter Jose Quintana carries a 3.32 ERA but with a 4.59 fielding independent, 6.2 strikeouts, and 3.2 walks per nine innings. Giants rookie Carson Whisenhunt has struggled in his three starts, posting a 5.02 ERA and 7.44 fielding independent, with five home runs allowed in just 14 1/3 innings, along with 4.4 walks and 7.5 strikeouts per nine. He faces a Brewers lineup that ranks third in scoring, averaging more than 5.1 runs per game.
Picks: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +130 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -1.5 -101 and Total 9.1)
