MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, July 19.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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4:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Miami Marlins
Though the Royals are second-to-last in the league in scoring with only about 3.3 runs per game, they face a Marlins pitcher in Cal Quantrill, who owns a 5.62 ERA with 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha has a 3.74 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 2.8 walks per nine innings, and he’s supported by a bullpen whose 3.68 ERA ranks ninth in the league.
Picks: Royals Moneyline -114 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Royals -131, Total 8.1)
6:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker owns a 3.55 ERA this season with 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings. Angels starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi has a 3.11 ERA with the same home run rate, but the offense behind him ranks just 24th in on-base percentage.
Picks: Phillies Moneyline -128 and Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -141, Total 8.9)
6:40 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are last in the league in scoring with fewer than 3.4 runs per game and look to starting pitcher Mike Burrows to hold down a White Sox team whose 3.1 runs per game on the road ranks 28th. Burrows owns a 4.83 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings, while White Sox starter Adrian Houser has been a massive surprise, posting a 1.57 ERA with just 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings this season.
Pick: White Sox vs. Pirates Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.8)
6:45 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals
Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish is making his third start after allowing six runs across 8 1/3 innings in his first two outings. He faces a Nationals lineup that averages fewer than four runs per game at home, compared to 4.7 on the road. Nationals starter Mitchell Parker owns a 5.12 ERA with 5.8 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings, and he’s backed by a bullpen whose 5.88 ERA ranks last in the league.
Pick: Padres Run Line -1.5 +115 (Greg’s Handicap: Padres -1.5 -106)
7:15 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray has been a different pitcher at home versus the road, posting a 2.84 ERA with just over 0.5 home runs per nine innings at home, compared to a 4.57 ERA with over 1.3 home runs per nine innings on the road. Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson owns a 3.68 ERA with 7.5 strikeouts and 2.9 walks per nine innings, backed by a bullpen with a 4.94 ERA that ranks 27th in the league.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.2)
8:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starting pitcher Antonio Senzatela has been rocked this season, posting a 6.60 ERA with 13.8 hits allowed per nine innings. Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson owns a 3.95 ERA overall, but that jumps to 4.96 on the road with nearly 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Twins Run Line -1.5 -120 (Greg’s Handicap: Twins Run Line -1.5 -157)
9:10 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Brewers lead the league in road scoring with over 5.4 runs per game and send Freddy Peralta to the mound. He owns a 2.66 ERA, though his 3.55 fielding independent suggests regression, along with three walks per nine innings. Dodgers starter Emmet Sheehan is making just his fourth appearance of the season, having allowed three runs and no home runs through 13 1/3 innings. The Dodgers lineup behind him is averaging a league-best 5.9 runs per game at home.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline -128 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -146, Total 9.2)
