MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, July 25.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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6:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson has been steady this season with a 3.52 ERA, allowing one home run and 2.8 walks per nine innings. He faces a Pirates lineup that ranks last in the league in scoring with just 3.4 runs per game. Pirates starting pitcher Mike Burrows has a 4.70 ERA this season with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he’s allowed two runs or fewer in four of his past five starts.
Picks: Diamondbacks Moneyline -109 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -127, Total 8.3)
7:05 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker has improved from last season, cutting his home run rate in half—from 2.6 to 1.3 per nine innings—while posting a 3.75 ERA. Yankees starter Will Warren looks due for positive regression with a 4.91 ERA but a 3.66 fielding independent, allowing just one home run per nine innings and striking out 10.6 batters per nine.
Pick: Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.2)
7:10 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starter Nick Martinez has a 4.71 ERA this season, but his 4.18 fielding independent shows he’s been a bit better than that, allowing 1.2 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings. Rays starter Zack Littell seems due for regression with a 3.53 ERA against a 4.83 fielding independent, allowing 1.8 home runs and recording just 6.1 strikeouts per nine.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -101 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -116)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starter Keider Montero owns a 4.28 ERA overall and a 3.89 ERA at home. He faces a Blue Jays lineup averaging 3.85 runs per game on the road, compared to 5.35 at home. Blue Jays starter José Berríos has been better on the road than at home this season, posting a 3.34 ERA away from Rogers Centre compared to a 4.34 ERA at home. He’ll face a Tigers lineup that has scored just 13 runs in seven games since the All-Star break.
Picks: Tigers Moneyline -104 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -104, Total 8.3)
7:15 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Padres starter Nick Pivetta has been excellent at home this season with a 2.07 ERA and just 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings, though he’s posted a 3.78 ERA and 1.5 HR/9 on the road. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas is giving up 1.6 home runs per nine innings while pitching to a lot of contact, with just 6.4 strikeouts per nine.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.5)
7:40 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starter Adrian Houser has a microscopic 1.89 ERA as a pitch-to-contact guy with only 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Cubs lineup that ranks second in the league in road scoring at 5.3 runs per game. Cubs starter Shota Imanaga is also pitching to contact, posting a 2.40 ERA despite allowing 1.3 home runs per nine innings and only 6.4 strikeouts per nine.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.9)
8:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starter Zebby Matthews has struggled in his MLB chances, with a 6.23 ERA despite striking out 12.1 per nine innings and walking 3.5. Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore has a 3.59 ERA and a 3.20 fielding independent, with only one home run allowed per nine innings and 11.2 strikeouts per nine. He’s backed by a Nationals lineup that averages just under 4.7 runs per game at home, compared to fewer than four on the road.
Picks: Nationals Moneyline +120 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Nationals +102, Total 8.7)
