MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, July 29.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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7:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Kansas City Royals
Newly acquired Braves starting pitcher Erick Fedde looks to break out of a funk after allowing at least three runs in five straight starts. He owns a 5.22 ERA with 5.6 strikeouts and 4.2 walks per nine innings overall this season. He faces a Royals lineup that ranks last in the league in home scoring with just three runs per game. Royals starter Seth Lugo owns a 2.92 ERA overall, which improves to 2.48 at home, and is supported by a bullpen whose 3.69 ERA ranks eighth in the league.
Picks: Royals Moneyline -119 and Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Royals -128 and Total 8.5)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago White Sox
Phillies starter Jesús Luzardo looks poised for positive regression from his 4.58 ERA, supported by a 3.00 fielding independent pitching (FIP) mark, 10.7 strikeouts per nine, and just 0.8 home runs allowed per nine. White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon holds a 4.48 ERA overall but has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his past five starts. His ERA drops to 3.42 at home, though Chicago ranks 27th in scoring at just 3.75 runs per game.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.9)
7:45 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara has endured a brutal 2025 season, posting a 6.66 ERA overall that balloons to 10.06 on the road, with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. Cardinals starter Sonny Gray has struggled to a 4.33 ERA despite allowing just 1.1 home runs per nine. He’ll face a Marlins lineup that averages 4.9 runs per game away from home—fifth in the league.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.8)
8:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros
Nationals starter Michael Soroka owns a 4.85 ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed, which climbs to 5.13 ERA and over 1.5 home runs per nine on the road. Astros starter Jason Alexander has struggled in seven appearances split between Oakland and Houston, posting an 8.14 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 5.1 walks per nine. Washington’s lineup ranks eighth in road scoring (4.7 runs per game), but its bullpen has the worst ERA in the league at 5.63.
Picks: Astros Moneyline -134 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -158 and Total 8.9)
9:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Padres pitcher Ryan Bergert gets the start in place of Yu Darvish. Bergert has a 2.84 ERA across 10 appearances, allowing three runs or fewer in all six of his starts, with 1.1 home runs per nine. Mets starter Sean Manaea has a 2.19 ERA in just 12 1/3 innings over three appearances this season. The Padres have a clear bullpen edge, with their 3.04 ERA leading the league compared to the Mets’ 10th-ranked 3.74 mark.
Pick: Padres Moneyline +108 (Greg’s Handicap: Padres -116)
9:45 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starter Justin Verlander owns a 4.70 ERA with 7.2 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings. He’ll face a Pirates offense that ranks dead last in road scoring with just over 2.8 runs per game. Pittsburgh starter Bailey Falter has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 13 of his past 15 starts and owns a 3.87 ERA overall, with 1.3 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine. The Giants lineup has also struggled, averaging the second-fewest home runs per game in the National League at 3.8.
Pick: Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.4)
