MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, July 30.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
12:35 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Blue Jays starter José Berríos has historically been worse on the road than at home, but this season he’s flipped the script with a 3.83 ERA overall and a 3.30 ERA in road games. Orioles starter Dean Kremer owns a 4.23 ERA with 1.2 home runs allowed per nine innings this season, but he’s been much better at home with a 2.65 ERA. He faces a Blue Jays lineup that averages 5.35 runs per game at home but just 4.1 runs per game on the road.
Picks: Blue Jays Moneyline +102 and Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -121 and Total 8.6)
2:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starter Freddy Peralta holds a 2.81 ERA that could be due for some regression, given his 3.66 fielding independent, 3.1 walks per nine innings, and a career-low 9.7 strikeouts per nine. Cubs starter Shōta Imanaga may already be regressing after allowing seven earned runs to the White Sox in his last start. He has a 3.12 ERA but a 4.70 FIP and is giving up 1.6 home runs per nine innings.
Picks: Brewers Moneyline -118 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -132 and Total 8.3)
2:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starter Adrian Houser has mastered soft contact this season, posting a 2.10 ERA despite just 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings thanks to only 0.4 home runs allowed per nine. Phillies starter Taijuan Walker has improved significantly from his rough 2024 season (7.10 ERA), now posting a 3.84 ERA with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces a White Sox lineup averaging only 3.8 runs per game, ranking 27th in MLB.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
4:10 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Yu Darvish has struggled in his first four starts of the season with a 9.18 ERA, 5.9 strikeouts, and 4.9 walks per nine innings. However, he’s backed by a Padres bullpen that leads the league with a 3.03 ERA. Mets starter Clay Holmes appears due for regression, with a 3.40 ERA but a 4.15 FIP, along with seven strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Padres Moneyline +110 (Greg’s Handicap: Padres -102)
