MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, July 8.
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6:35 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles
Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes has been good at inducing soft contact this season, posting a 2.99 ERA with one home run allowed per nine innings. Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young owns a rough 7.02 ERA in his four MLB starts this season, but his 2.70 ERA with 9.7 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings in the minors should lead to some optimism now that he has a few MLB starts under his belt. Young is supported by an Orioles lineup whose 4.2 runs per game ranks 21st in the league.
Picks: Mets Moneyline -120 and Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap -134 and Total 9.1)
6:40 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty enters Tuesday with a 4.84 ERA this season, having allowed at least three runs in each of his past four starts, along with 1.6 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Ryan Pepiot owns a 3.34 ERA but a 4.20 fielding independent, allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings. He’s backed by a lineup that ranks sixth in road scoring with over five runs per game, while the Tigers are also plating over five runs per game.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.7)
7:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez has pitched five or more innings in just one of his five starts this season, posting a 4.50 ERA. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA at 4.21. Reds starting pitcher Nick Martinez owns a 4.20 ERA with just 1.9 walks per nine innings, and his ERA improves to 3.42 at home.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -117 (Greg’s Handicap Reds -142)
7:40 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has a 4.32 ERA but just a 3.69 fielding independent, with 9.2 strikeouts to 2.5 walks per nine innings. He faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 28th in home runs per at-bat and 28th in total scoring with under 3.5 runs per game. White Sox starter Aaron Civale owns a 4.60 ERA this season but has been much better of late, allowing two earned runs or fewer in eight of his past nine starts. The Blue Jays lineup is scoring just 3.7 runs per game on the road, which ranks 25th in the league.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.2)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Kansas City Royals
Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has significant career home and road splits, posting a lifetime 3.99 ERA at home with just over 0.8 home runs per nine innings, compared to a 5.00 road ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings away from home. Royals starter Seth Lugo has a 2.65 ERA this season, which drops to 2.42 at home, with fewer than 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces a Pirates lineup averaging fewer than 2.9 runs per game on the road — the lowest mark in the league.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -134 (Greg’s Handicap Royals -173)
9:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has struggled on the road throughout his career, with a lifetime 3.28 ERA at home compared to a 4.35 ERA away. He allows over 1.3 home runs per nine innings on the road with 7.7 strikeouts, versus one home run and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings at home. Padres starter Nick Pivetta has been dominant at home, posting a 2.52 ERA with 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings, compared to a 4.09 ERA and over 1.4 home runs per nine innings on the road.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -112 (Greg’s Handicap Padres -132)
10:05 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Oakland Athletics
Athletics starter Jeffrey Springs owns a 4.07 ERA with a 4.77 fielding independent, allowing 1.5 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. He’s backed by a bullpen with a 5.73 ERA — 29th in the league. Braves starter Didier Fuentes has a 9.00 ERA in three starts after being called up to the MLB level at age 20, with only one career start at the Triple-A level.
Pick: Over 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 10.6)
