MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, May 11.
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1:35 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Both starting pitchers appear due for positive regression. Chris Sale of the Braves has allowed a total of five runs across his last four starts, posting a season-long 4.07 ERA with a 3.06 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and 12 strikeouts per nine innings. Pirates starter Carmen Mlodzinski has a 6.16 ERA, but his FIP sits at 4.31, and he has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his past three starts. Additionally, the Pirates’ 3.1 runs per game are the fewest in the league.
Pick: Braves vs. Pirates Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.7)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals
Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore has pitched better than his 2-3 record and 3.33 ERA suggest, with a 2.76 FIP and 13.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has struggled to generate swings and misses, owning a 4.76 ERA with just 4.8 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. The Cardinals’ bullpen hasn’t helped, ranking 19th in the league with a 4.24 ERA.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline -115 (Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -146)
1:40 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starter Drew Rasmussen has a solid 3.09 ERA, but his 3.71 FIP and recent struggles—allowing at least three runs in each of his past three starts—are a concern. The Brewers lineup ranks seventh in road scoring at just under 5.2 runs per game. Brewers starter Chad Patrick has a 3.08 ERA with a similar 3.82 FIP to Rasmussen.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline +125 (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers +114)
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers
The Rangers lineup should get a boost with Evan Carter and Corey Seager recently returning from the injured list, bolstering an offense that ranked 29th in runs per game (3.2) entering Saturday. Meanwhile, the Tigers ranked second in the AL at nearly 5.4 runs per game. Tigers starter Reese Olson has been excellent, with a 3.03 ERA and 2.93 FIP, allowing just one home run over 38 2/3 innings. Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi has a 2.01 ERA with strong peripherals (0.6 HR and 0.7 BB per nine), but faces a tough Tigers lineup.
Picks: Tigers -108 and Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -125 and Total 7.9)
2:10 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito has allowed nine runs in 9 2/3 innings over his first two starts this season, following a 2023 campaign with a 4.88 ERA, 1.5 home runs, and 3.1 walks per nine. Royals starter Seth Lugo has posted a 2.84 ERA despite only 6.6 strikeouts per nine and is backed by a bullpen that ranks fourth in ERA at 2.76.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -123 (Greg’s Handicap: Royals -139)
San Francisco Giants vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starter Pablo Lopez has been dominant, posting a 2.18 ERA and 2.11 FIP with 10.1 strikeouts and 1.4 walks per nine. Giants starter Landen Roupp owns a 4.89 ERA but should benefit from positive regression given his 3.89 FIP and 10 strikeouts per nine. The Giants bullpen ranks second in the league with a 2.44 ERA.
Pick: Giants Moneyline +130 (Greg’s Handicap: Giants +114)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Houston Astros
Reds rookie Chase Petty can only improve after giving up nine runs in 2 1/3 innings in his MLB debut, yielding a 34.71 ERA. Astros starter Ronel Blanco has struggled with a 4.98 ERA, 1.6 home runs, and 4.2 walks per nine. The Reds are a top-10 road offense, averaging 4.9 runs per game.
Picks: Astros Run Line -1.5 +145 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -1.5 +118 and Total 9.2)
3:10 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have struggled offensively, averaging just under 3.3 runs per game overall and 4.3 runs per game at home, ranking 17th even at Coors Field. Padres starter Nick Pivetta has a 2.01 ERA with 9.8 strikeouts and 0.7 home runs allowed per nine. The Padres bullpen is fifth in ERA at 2.83. Rockies starter German Marquez has a bloated 9.90 ERA, though his 5.04 FIP suggests potential improvement.
Pick: Padres vs. Rockies Under 11.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 10.3)
4:10 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
In two starts since returning from the injured list, Dodgers pitcher Tony Gonsolin has allowed five runs in 11 innings. In 2023, he had a 4.98 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine. Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen has a career 3.10 ERA at home, allowing just 0.9 home runs per nine, and leads a lineup that has scored the most runs per game in MLB since the start of 2024.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline +100 (Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -112)
7:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starter Luis Ortiz has posted a 5.30 ERA with 4.6 walks per nine innings. Phillies ace Zack Wheeler has a 3.35 ERA but has uncharacteristically allowed 1.4 home runs per nine this season. The Phillies bullpen has struggled, ranking 23rd with a 4.74 ERA.
Pick: Phillies vs. Guardians Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
