MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, May 4.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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1:15 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Game One of Doubleheader
This is the MLB debut of Mets starting pitcher Blade Tidwell, who at the minor league level is posting a 5.00 ERA this season. Over his career in the minors, he’s averaged 4.7 walks per nine innings. Cardinals starter Erick Fedde, meanwhile, has just 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings with a 4.68 ERA, but has done a solid job keeping the ball in the park, allowing just 0.8 home runs per nine innings.
Picks: Cardinals Moneyline +115 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -104, Total 9.1)
1:35 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Yankees starter Will Warren has struggled with control, issuing 4.5 walks per nine innings, contributing to a 5.63 ERA. Rays starter Taj Bradley carries a 4.58 ERA and has seen his strikeout rate drop to 7.4 per nine innings after posting 10 or more in each of the previous two seasons.
Pick: Rays Moneyline +158 (Greg’s Handicap: Rays +127)
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox
Though Twins starter Chris Paddack has a rough 5.60 ERA and has allowed three home runs in his past three starts, he’s given up only four total runs in those games, suggesting the ERA might be a bit misleading. Red Sox starter Garrett Crochet has been dominant with a 2.05 ERA, though his 3.7 walks per nine innings are a concern—especially with a bullpen that ranks 17th in the league with a 4.05 ERA.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starter Kyle Gibson was torched for nine runs and five home runs in his first start of 2025 after posting a 4.24 ERA and allowing 1.2 home runs per nine innings last year with the Cardinals. Royals starter Michael Lorenzen has been steadier with a 3.48 ERA, 7.5 strikeouts, and 3.5 walks per nine innings, though he’s supported by a lineup that ranks 28th in offense with just under 3.2 runs per game.
Picks: Royals Moneyline +112 and Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Royals -108, Total 8.6)
1:40 PM Eastern
Oakland Athletics vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starter Edward Cabrera has struggled in his first four outings with a 7.23 ERA, 5.3 walks, and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Athletics starter JP Sears owns a 4.79 FIP with 1.5 home runs per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen with a 4.40 ERA, while the Marlins rank 28th in team ERA at 5.13 entering Saturday.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline +118 (Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -102)
2:05 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starter Ranger Suárez makes his season debut after logging a 3.46 ERA last year and allowing just 0.8 home runs per nine innings. However, his 5.65 ERA after the All-Star Break is a red flag. Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been unlucky so far this year with a 6.06 ERA despite a solid 4.04 FIP and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.7)
2:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Cubs entered the weekend leading MLB in runs per game, averaging over 6.1. Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has a 2.52 ERA but a 3.77 FIP, and his 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings would be a career low. Cubs starter Shota Imanaga has been lucky so far, posting a 2.77 ERA despite a 4.87 FIP. He has just 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings and is allowing 1.6 home runs per nine.
Picks: Brewers Moneyline -105 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -116, Total 7.8)
