MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, September 11.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
2:10 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starting pitcher Shane Smith enters Thursday with a 3.95 ERA, 8.5 strikeouts, and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Ian Seymour has shifted from the bullpen to a starter/bulk role in his past three appearances, giving up nine runs in 14 innings—but seven of those runs were unearned. Overall this season, Seymour owns a 2.89 ERA with 11.3 strikeouts, just 0.7 home runs, and 2.9 walks per nine innings.
Picks: Rays Moneyline -138 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Rays -148 and Total 7.9)
6:40 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
Nationals starting pitcher Brad Lord has a 4.20 ERA between his time as a starter and reliever but has struggled lately, allowing at least four runs in three of his past four starts. He has a 4.97 ERA as a starter compared to 2.79 out of the bullpen and is backed by a Nationals bullpen that ranks last in the league with a 5.37 ERA. Marlins starter Ryan Weathers is making his first MLB start since June 7, carrying a 3.28 ERA through five starts this season. He also impressed during his five rehab appearances in the minors, posting a 2.00 ERA with 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -126 (Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -163)
7:15 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starter Jesús Luzardo owns a 4.01 ERA but has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his past eight starts, signaling positive regression. He carries a 3.01 FIP with 10.6 strikeouts and only 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. Mets starter David Peterson has limited opponents to just 0.5 home runs per nine innings this season but has only eight strikeouts and 3.4 walks per nine innings, contributing to a 3.72 ERA. He has been roughed up in his past two outings, allowing 12 runs across just 7 1/3 innings, and now faces a Phillies lineup that leads the National League in home scoring at 5.3 runs per game.
Picks: Phillies Moneyline -140 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Phillies Moneyline -150 and Total 8.2)
9:40 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starter Randy Vásquez owns a 3.91 ERA this season, though his 5.18 FIP suggests regression is looming, given just 4.8 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings. Rockies starter McCade Brown has fared even worse, allowing 13 runs in 9 1/3 innings for a 12.54 ERA across three starts after never pitching above Double-A. He’s backed by a Rockies bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA at 5.27.
Picks: Padres Run Line -1.5 (-115) and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Padres -1.5 -137 and Total 8.8)
