MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, April 10.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our brand new Opta AI Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:45 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns posted a 4.67 ERA as a rookie last season, but his 2.65 fielding independent with 13.9 strikeouts per nine innings suggests upside.
Angels starting pitcher Jack Kochanowicz had a 6.81 ERA with 5.8 strikeouts and 4.7 walks per nine innings last season but appears to be much improved this season, allowing five runs and no home runs across 9 2/3 innings through his first two starts with 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Reds lineup that ranks 28th in scoring with fewer than 3.2 runs per game.
Pick: Angels vs. Reds Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
7:07 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Pitcher Patrick Corbin makes his first start of the season for the Blue Jays after being a free agent on Opening Day, but he had a bit of a renaissance in 2025 with a 4.40 ERA, allowing 1.2 home runs and three walks per nine innings with the Rangers after posting an ERA of 5.20 or higher in each of the previous four seasons.
Twins starting pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson was neither great nor awful last season, posting a 4.04 ERA with 8.7 strikeouts and 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Blue Jays lineup that has struggled to begin the season, tied for 27th in scoring with just over 3.4 runs per game.
Pick: Twins vs. Blue Jays Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.9
7:10 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. New York Mets
Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn has split time as both a starter and long reliever since the start of the 2025 season, posting a 5.09 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a bullpen that ranked 24th in ERA last season at 4.53.
Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes has a 3.38 ERA in 35 appearances since joining the team prior to the 2025 season, allowing just 0.8 home runs per nine innings. He faces an Athletics lineup that has struggled away from home this season, averaging nearly 7.7 runs per game at home compared to just 2.8 runs per game on the road.
Pick: Mets Run Line -1.5 +135
Greg’s Handicap: Mets Run Line -1.5 -103
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil is making his first start of the season after posting a 3.32 ERA across 11 starts last season, but he was somewhat fortunate to have that ERA given his 4.63 fielding independent with 6.5 strikeouts and 5.2 walks per nine innings.
Rays starting pitcher Steven Matz is looking to build on a 2025 season in which he posted a 3.05 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 1.3 walks per nine innings and should benefit from the Rays returning to Tropicana Field after playing at Steinbrenner Field last season.
Pick: Rays Moneyline +125 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays +104 and Total 7.9
7:15 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves
After posting a rough 5.30 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings allowed last season, Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder has looked much improved through his first two starts of the season with just two unearned runs allowed across 13 innings.
Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi had a 4.30 ERA with 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed in 2025. While the Guardians ranked third in bullpen ERA last season, they are dealing with reliever Hunter Gaddis being on the injured list. A healthy Braves lineup looks rejuvenated, ranking fifth in the league with 5.1 runs per game to start the season.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -130 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Braves Moneyline -149 and Total 8.9
7:40 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin had a rough 2025 season with a 5.70 ERA and a 5.64 fielding independent, allowing 6.2 strikeouts and 1.9 home runs per nine innings, while being backed by a bullpen that ranked last in the league in ERA at 5.59.
Brewers starting pitcher Chad Patrick is coming off a rookie season in which he posted both a 3.53 ERA and a 3.53 fielding independent, generating 9.6 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that ranked fifth in scoring last season with 4.8 runs per game.
Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +118 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -1.5 -114 and Total 8.6
8:15 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Dustin May struggled last season with a 4.96 ERA, allowing 1.4 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings, and it has worsened this season with 13 runs allowed through 7 1/3 innings across two starts.
Red Sox starting pitcher Connelly Early has impressed in a small sample size of six regular-season starts, posting a 2.51 ERA with no home runs allowed and 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings, though he may be due for regression against a Cardinals lineup that enters the series tied for sixth in scoring with over 4.9 runs per game. However, the Cardinals bullpen has struggled, posting a 5.33 ERA, which ranks 23rd in the league.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Cardinals Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
9:40 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Rockies starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano posted a 4.64 ERA last season with 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed for a 5.36 fielding independent as a member of the Baltimore Orioles. He is supported by a Rockies lineup that ranked last in road scoring last season with 2.8 runs per game.
Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler had a 4.93 ERA and a 5.66 fielding independent last season, allowing 1.6 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings, but is backed by a bullpen that led the league in ERA last season at 3.06.
Pick: Padres Run Line -1.5 +122 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -1.5 -115 and Total 8.3
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starting pitcher Emerson Hancock is off to a strong start this season, allowing just one run through 12 2/3 innings, but that may not be sustainable after posting a 4.90 ERA and 5.08 fielding independent last season with 1.5 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings.
Astros starting pitcher Tatsuya Imai makes his third MLB start after dominating in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball last season with a 1.98 ERA and 0.3 home runs per nine innings for the Seibu Lions. He is coming off 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Athletics on the road in his last start.
Pick: Astros Moneyline +116
Greg’s Handicap: Astros +104
10:10 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Rangers starting pitcher Kumar Rocker struggled to a 5.74 ERA last season, but his 4.88 fielding independent suggests potential improvement. He is supported by a bullpen that ranked fifth in ERA last season at 3.62 and currently ranks second in the league to begin this season at 1.55.
Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow posted a 3.19 ERA last season with 10.6 strikeouts and just one home run allowed per nine innings. He faces a Rangers lineup that ranks 22nd in scoring to begin this season with fewer than 3.7 runs per game after also ranking 22nd last season at 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Rangers vs. Dodgers Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.9
