MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, April 3.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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1:35 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren has yet to put it all together at the big league level, posting a 4.44 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that last season led the league in both home runs and overall scoring with 5.2 runs per game. Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez had huge home and road splits last season, posting a 2.93 ERA with 0.2 home runs per nine allowed at home versus a 5.33 ERA with 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed away from home.
Pick: Yankees vs. Marlins Over 8 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.7)
2:10 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
Blue Jays starting pitcher Dylan Cease is coming off of an impressive season debut in which he had 12 strikeouts and one run allowed in 5 1/3 innings. He has a tendency to jack up his pitch count as he posted a 4.55 ERA with 3.8 walks per nine innings last season. The White Sox will use an opener before pitcher Sean Burke comes in as a bulk guy, and Burke has similar issues. He gave out 4.2 walks per nine innings last season, posting a 4.22 ERA with a 4.92 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. The White Sox bullpen appears to be in for a rough year, as their 9.12 ERA this season ranks 29th in the league. The Blue Jays bullpen is also off to a tough start with a 6.58 ERA, which ranks 27th.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. White Sox Over 7.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.4)
4:10 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober is coming off a career-worst year in 2025, posting a 5.10 ERA with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed. Rays starting pitcher Joe Boyle showed that he has good stuff with 10 strikeouts per nine innings, but lacked command with a 4.67 ERA due in large part to issuing 4.8 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen whose 9.15 ERA is last in the league, while the Twins are 23rd with a 5.48 ERA.
Pick Rays vs. Twins Over 7.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.2)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
Coors Field has the highest ballpark factor for elevating offense in the league, which was shown by the Rockies averaging nearly 4.6 runs per game at home last season compared to 2.8 runs per game away from home last season. The Rockies offense gets to face Aaron Nola, who is coming off a miserable 2025 season in which he had a 6.01 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed. Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen had a 4.64 ERA with 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed with the Kansas City Royals last season.
Pick: Phillies vs. Rockies Over 10 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 11.1)
9:38 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo posted a 2.93 ERA with 9.5 strikeouts and 1.7 walks per nine innings, but did allow 1.3 home runs per nine innings. Last season, the Angels ranked fourth in the league in home runs per at-bat. Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers has a respectable 3.95 ERA and 3.12 fielding independent last season with 0.8 home runs allowed and 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings. That success came out of the bullpen as his effectiveness as a starting pitcher has not been the same, posting a career 4.91 ERA with nearly 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Mariners lineup that was second in road run production last season with 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Mariners vs. Angels Over 8 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.7)
9:40 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Athletics
Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier is coming off a tough 2025 season in which he had a 4.62 ERA with 8.2 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings. While his sample size was small last season with only eight total starts, his ERA jumped to 7.11 on the road. Athletics starting pitcher Jeffrey Springs had a 4.11 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed, but he and his teammates should have more of a home field advantage with this being year number two of playing in Sacramento. Much of the team had negative home and road splits on the mound, which may still linger, with it being a top-three ballpark in boosting offense with its factors.
Picks: Athletics Moneyline +100 and Under 10.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap Athletics -122 and Total 9.7)
