MLB Player Props for Friday, May 31
The 2024 MLB season is in full swing and we continue to come at it from a bunch of different directions. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Friday, May 31st.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies – 6:40 pm ET
Miles Mikolas has walked at least two batters in two of his last three starts. He also has three other multi-walk starts on the season. So, while I wouldn’t consider Mikolas to be a pitcher that struggles mightily with control, he does occasionally get himself into some trouble. That said, I think it’s hard not to like even-money odds on Mikolas to walk two batters against Philadelphia. This Phillies team has the fourth-highest walk rate in baseball against righties this season, so these hitters are really good about laying off bad pitches. That’s part of the reason why Mikolas issued two walks against the Phillies on April 8th. And while it might not seem likely it’ll happen again, Mikolas is a little shakier on the road than he is at home. And Philadelphia isn’t an easy place to pitch. The Phillies are 22-8 at home this year.
Pick: Mikolas Over 1.5 Walks (+100)
Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians – 7:10 pm ET
Patrick Corbin has had at least four strikeouts in five of his last 10 starts, and he’s coming off a game in which he reached that mark. Corbin has also allowed three or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts, so he’s just generally in a nice groove right now. Now, I’m hoping Corbin can strike out four batters in a meeting with the Guardians. Cleveland’s offense is obviously quite dangerous this season and the lineup absolutely crushes left-handed pitching. But the Guardians also happen to have a strikeout rate of 22.3% against southpaws. So, while Cleveland’s wRC+ against left-handed pitching is much higher than it is against right-handed pitching, the team does strikeout more against lefties. With that in mind, I’m confident Corbin can strike out four batters here, even if he struggles in the start.
Pick: Corbin Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-120 – 1.5 units)
Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins – 7:10 pm ET
Sixto Sanchez has been called out by his manager for his poor starts to games recently. And overall, Sanchez has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his last six outings. That makes it pretty hard to understand why you can get Sanchez to give up Over 2.5 earned runs at plus-money odds. Texas has one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball and has the eighth-highest wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year. This is a lineup that will pounce if Sanchez isn’t extremely sharp early, so I’m all over this play tonight. Perhaps this will end up being the ultimate trap play, but I just can’t help myself.
Pick: Sanchez Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+114 – 1.5 units)
Thursday’s Plays
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