Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for May 4. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Monday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Monday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. That’s also where you’ll find any late adds to my card. I go way lighter on these than I do NBA/NFL/CBB/CFB/Tennis. I also take a volume approach, as I’m working with a system I have found to be successful when it comes to shopping prices. So, if you notice I’m throwing a ton of plays up on a daily basis, don’t assume I’m putting a standard unit on all of them. My MLB units are 40% of what my normal units are.
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115) vs. Orioles
Orioles at Yankees – 7:05 pm ET
Bellinger has gone Over his hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) total in 11 of the last 16 games. In that span, he’s also averaging 2.8 HRR per game. If you break the sample down a little more, things get every more interesting for Bellinger. In that same recent span, in home games in which Bellinger has seen right-handed starters, he’s averaging 3.0 HRR per game. Well, it’ll be Shane Baz going for the Orioles this evening. Baltimore’s shiny new righty is extremely talented from a swing-and-miss and overall stuff standpoint, but he is a righty nonetheless. So, I’ll take a chance on Bellinger to stay hot in what should be a decent matchup for him. With the way he’s going right now, he might cash this with one swing of the bat.
Michael Wacha Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+124) vs. Guardians
Guardians at Royals – 7:40 pm ET
Wacha has had at least five strikeouts in five of his six starts this season, and he comes into this meeting with the Guardians having had at least five Ks in four consecutive games. Well, this is also a good matchup for Wacha. The Guardians’ 21.7% strikeout rate against righties isn’t overly high, but this is a team that struggles to hit changeups. Well, Wacha throws a changeup on 24.4% of his pitches, so he could keep Cleveland off balance. Earlier in the season, that didn’t quite manifest itself. Wacha only struck out three hitters in 7.0 innings against the Guardians back on April 6. But I like him to bounce back in the K column here.
Davis Martin Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-135) vs. Angels
White Sox at Angels – 9:38 pm ET
Martin’s outs recorded prop is up at 17.5 in some places, but you can get it at 15.5 at one prominent shop. And even if you can’t, I’d be willing to go Over on 16.5 at anything up to -125 here. Martin has been a reliable innings eater for Chicago this season, and he has also pitched remarkably well overall. But the innings are what we’re looking at here. The righty has recorded at least 17 outs in five straight starts, and he just recorded 17 against this same Los Angeles team on April 28. That said, there’s no reason Martin can’t do it again. This isn’t the most dangerous lineup in the world.
Additional Best Bets
Joe Mack Over 0.5 Total Bases (-125) vs. Phillies
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100) vs. Marlins
Nick Martinez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-126) vs. Blue Jays
Chase Petty Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-160) vs. Cubs
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+115) vs. Mariners
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Brice Matthews Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-132) vs. Dodgers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.65 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -418 — a +23.8% edge to the Over.
Dustin Harris Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-132) vs. Dodgers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.64 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -415 — a +23.7% edge to the Over.
Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-128) vs. Mariners
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.46 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -328 — a +20.5% edge to the Over.
