Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for May 7. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. That’s also where you’ll find any late adds to my card. I go way lighter on these than I do NBA/NFL/CBB/CFB/Tennis. I also take a volume approach, as I’m working with a system I have found to be successful when it comes to shopping prices. My MLB units are 40% of what my normal units are.
Mitch Keller Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-155 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 5+ (+140 – 0.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 6+ (+355 – 0.25 units) vs. Diamondbacks
Pirates at Diamondbacks – 3:40 pm ET
Keller hasn’t been the most dangerous swing-and-miss pitcher in recent seasons, but he has been in a nice groove lately. The righty has had at least five strikeouts in three consecutive starts, and he has fanned at least four in five of the last six. Well, Keller is now going up against a Diamondbacks team that could be in for some regression in the K% column. While Arizona isn’t one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to strikeout rate, this team does have far too many players swinging at pitches out of the zone. That should benefit Keller as he looks to stay hot later today, and that’s why I’m laddering him up to six strikeouts.
Max Meyer Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105) vs. Orioles
Orioles at Marlins – 6:40 pm ET
While I mentioned the Diamondbacks aren’t up there in strikeout rate, the Orioles actually are. This season, only five teams have a higher strikeout percentage than Baltimore’s 24.3% mark. That should mean good things for Meyer, who has had at least seven strikeouts in two of his last three starts. Meyer has a pretty good fastball that sits in the mid-to-high 90s, and that pitch really allows him to fool hitters with his tremendous slider. This is a matchup in which Meyer should be able to make some of the top hitters in the Orioles lineup miss — like Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso, and Samuel Basallo, who all struggle with Ks against righties — and I never worry about talented pitchers against the bottom of the order.
Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105) vs. Cardinals
Cardinals at Padres – 10:10 pm ET
The Hantavirus news didn’t play too big of a role in me going to a Castellanos prop tonight, though everyone knows the 34-year-old plays his best ball when there’s earth-shattering news in the air. The real reason I’m going to Castellanos is that he is starting to see the ball well. Castellanos has gone Over 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) in four of the last seven games, and he had at least two HRR in back-to-back games entering this one. Castellanos now gets to face a left-handed starter in Matthew Liberatore, and he’s a hittable one too. Keep an eye on the fastballs and sliders here. Liberatore loves both of those pitches, but Castellanos will be hoping to see them.
Additional Best Bets
Jose Tena Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110) vs. Twins
Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130) vs. Royals
Shota Imanaga Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-155) vs. Reds
Marcus Semien Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+125) vs. Rockies
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Danny Jansen Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-142) vs. Yankees
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.67 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -433 — a +22.6% edge to the Over.
Matt Wallner Over 1.5 Total Bases (+159) vs. Nationals
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.88 total bases, suggesting these odds should be -127 — a +17.4% edge to the Over.
Evan Carter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+250) vs. Yankees
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.54 total bases, suggesting these odds should be +119 — a +17.0% edge to the Over.
