Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers Wild Card Preview
A dip in the Chase Field pool felt like a good way for the Diamondbacks to celebrate their first playoff appearance since 2017 and just their second since 2011. Arizona was swept right out the NLDS in 2017, so it has been over a decade since the team last won a playoff game.
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The Brewers, meanwhile, have been a staple in the playoffs for a while now, as they’ve appeared in five of the last six postseasons. They missed out last season by a game when their team completely collapsed in the final week of the season. The Phillies, who were the team to finish one game better, ultimately went on to win the NL Pennant. I guess this is something of a revenge tour for Milwaukee, who hasn’t won a playoff series since 2018.
Pitching gets you through the regular season and the Brewers are evidence of that based on all of their success in getting to the playoffs. The Diamondbacks have found that out as well, as pitching coach Brent Strom paid very quick dividends after he was hired prior to the 2022 season. It will be the team that finds some offense that wins this series.
MLB Playoffs Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook
Diamondbacks +150 / Brewers -180
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers schedule and how to watch
Game 1: Tuesday October 3, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Game 2: Wednesday October 4, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Game 3: Thursday October 4, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2) (if necessary)
Pitching Matchups
(will be updated as teams announce rotations)
Game 1: Brandon Pfaadt vs. Corbin Burnes
Game 2: Zac Gallen vs. Freddy Peralta
Game 3: Merrill Kelly vs. TBD
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers series preview
The advantage of winning your division and getting set up for the postseason is very, very evident in this series. The Diamondbacks needed Zac Gallen on Friday and Merrill Kelly on Saturday, which means that the choices are to go with Gallen on short rest on Tuesday or roll with rookie Brandon Pfaadt. The lack of starting pitcher depth has been an issue for Arizona all season long and it could rear its ugly head to begin this series.
Admittedly, the Brewers have been a team that I didn’t feel was all that good throughout the season. They rank in the middle of the pack in a lot of team stats, but are maybe the best defensive team in all of baseball and have once again put together a very stout bullpen. Freddy Peralta was ninth in fWAR among qualified starters in the second half, but Brandon Woodruff is going to miss the series with a shoulder issue.
It is the offense that worries me with the Brewers. By wOBA, which is a more detailed version of on-base percentage, the Brewers are the worst offense in the playoffs at .309. The others below league average are the Diamondbacks and Marlins. By wRC+, where 100 is league average, the Brewers finished with a 92 wRC+. That ranks them tied for 22nd and better than only Pittsburgh, Oakland, Detroit, Kansas City, Chicago (AL), and Colorado.
The thing is that Arizona isn’t much better, coming in 18th in wRC+ at 97. The Diamondbacks do put a lot more balls in play than the Brewers and are more aggressive on the bases, so they generate their run-scoring opportunities in that way. The Brewers drew a lot more walks. Despite the K% discrepancy, the Brewers only hit one fewer home run than Arizona.
This is hardly a bad thing, but one of the reasons for my distrust in Milwaukee is that the Brewers were 29-18 in one-run games. Milwaukee finished +81 in run differential, going 35-20 over the final 55 games with a +97 run differential. Prior to that, they were a division leader for quite some time with a negative run differential. They are playing their best ball as they head into the postseason, though, and there’s something to be said about that.
The presence of Pfaadt in Game 1 really skews how this series is projected to go. If Pfaadt gets rocked and the bullpen is forced into a heavy workload, the D-Backs have minimal margin for error from Gallen and Kelly. Kelly has some big home/road splits and Gallen has allowed a ton of hard contact this season, especially in the second half.
My favorite bet here is Brewers win the series 2-0, which is +200 at DraftKings. Assuming they win Game 1 over Pfaadt, I like either Woodruff or Burnes in Game 2 against Gallen, who is a guy that I want to fade in the postseason.
Pick: Brewers Win Series 2-0 (+200)
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