Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Wild Card Preview
The Marlins are a team I was wrong about, but I wasn’t wrong about. Miami under the season win total was a bet of mine and by some of the alternate standings metrics, it should have gotten there or at least been a big sweat. The Marlins finished 84-77-1, with their suspended game against the Mets not required to complete. By Pythagorean Win-Loss, this was a 75-86 team. By BaseRuns, this was a 77-85 team. By 3rd Order Win%, this was a 78-83 team.
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But, the Marlins went 33-13 in one-run games and made the playoffs despite finishing with a -57 run differential. This reminds me of the 2016 Texas Rangers, who went 36-11 in one-run games and made the playoffs at 95-67 with a +8 run differential. Toronto swept them right out of the first round by a 22-10 count.
The Phillies started slow with a 25-30 record through 55 games, but all’s well that ends well and they’re back to defend their National League crown as the top Wild Card team. By locking up the No. 4 seed so early, the Phillies have had the luxury of setting things up for the playoffs, while the Marlins only had a couple of days to do that. The Phillies are the biggest favorites of the Wild Card Round.
MLB Playoffs Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook
Marlins +160 / Phillies -190
Marlins vs. Phillies schedule and how to watch
Game 1: Tuesday October 3, 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 2: Wednesday October 4, 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 3: Thursday October 4, 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN) (if necessary)
Pitching Matchups
(will be updated as teams announce rotations)
Game 1: Jesus Luzardo vs. Zack Wheeler
Game 2: Braxton Garrett vs. Aaron Nola
Game 3: TBD vs. TBD
Marlins vs. Phillies series preview
The story in this series to me is that the Marlins are a much different team at home than they are on the road. Marlins Park suppresses offense, which allows Miami to hang around in a lot of games. As mentioned, they went 33-13 in one-run games, which was a huge asset to them during the season. The Marlins only scored 4.1 runs per game and actually did better at home than on the road, but still finished 46-35 at home and 38-42 on the road. They were -8 in run differential at home and -47 on the road.
The Marlins need to play low-scoring games to have their best chance. Offense costs money and this is a team that operates with one of the lowest payrolls in the league on an annual basis. Pitching is easier to develop and it is easier to save money at the margins by developing from within. You’ll oftentimes see Miami try to buy low-cost free agents and platoon players in hopes of cobbling together a competent offense. Most of their pitching is homegrown or acquired via trade with cost-controlled targets.
So, in a series such as this, Miami hitting the road is a concern. Look no further than Game 1 starter Jesus Luzardo. By no means does this guarantee that Luzardo will struggle, but he had a 3.07 ERA at home compared to a 4.48 ERA on the road. His SLG against was 101 points higher on the road and his wOBA against was 38 points higher. Ironically, Game 2 starter Braxton Garrett was better on the road than at home, so maybe it will cancel out.
But, there is no denying that lower-scoring environment helps Miami more. Maybe some cooler weather in Philadelphia will help that cause, but the Phillies hit 220 home runs and the Marlins hit 166. Home runs are magnified in the playoffs because the pitching is typically so good and baserunners are harder to come by and even harder to drive in. Teams that hold the power advantage are usually good bets to advance, especially when the pitching staffs are pretty close together.
Even though the Marlins did so well in one-run games, the Phillies had the lower bullpen ERA and allowed fewer home runs. Miami’s bullpen did well generating strikeouts and ranked second in the league, but they did use more openers and starters in relief, so that was part of it. They may even go that route in Game 3 if necessary.
The Phillies should advance, but -190 is definitely a big price in a three-game series. I don’t have any pre-series bets.
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