MLB Best Bets

You have to love Saturday baseball. Why? Because every single team in MLB is playing. We have a full 15-game slate to choose from, and there is a ton of value on the board from first five wagers to player props. I am going to give you three of my MLB Best Bets for Saturday, April 6, below, but be sure to price shop for the best odds available to you at the time of viewing.

My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB Best Bets and Props all season long. 

 

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Cleveland at Minnesota

2:10 p.m. ET

The Minnesota Twins will host the Cleveland Guardians on Saturday in what will be somewhat of a mismatch at starting pitcher between Joe Ryan and veteran Carlos Carrasco. 

After posting a disappointing 6.80 ERA over 20 games last season, Carrasco allowed three runs on six hits over five innings against the lowly A’s during his 2024 debut. 

Unfortunately for Carrasco, the Twins will pose a far more dangerous threat to the right-hander. In 2023, Minnesota posted the fifth-highest wRC+ versus righties (111) and have several hitters off to a hot start, such as Carlos Correa (209 wRC+) and left-handed Alex Kirilloff (222 wRC+).

Meanwhile, the Twins will counter with the 27-year-old Ryan, who held the Kansas City Royals to one run over 5 â…“ innings last weekend.

Ryan will be tasked with taking on a Guardians lineup that posted the 6th-lowest wRC+ versus right-handers last season with a .388 slugging percentage.

The heart of the Cleveland lineup has struggled mightily against Ryan in their career, including José Ramírez (.143), Josh Naylor (.182), and Andrés Giménez (.211)

While strikeouts may be tougher to come by against Cleveland, Ryan should be able to limit hard contact and outduel Carrasco over the first five innings.

MLB Best Bet: Twins -0.5 F5 (-115)

Toronto at NY Yankees

7:05 p.m. ET

The New York Yankees are off to a scorching start this season, posting a 6-2 record over the first week of the season.

That said, the Bronx Bombers seem to be getting far too much respect from sportsbooks on Saturday with Kevin Gausman on the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Gausman, a perennial Cy Young candidate, held the Tampa Bay Rays to one run over 4 ⅓ innings last week with six strikeouts. The right-hander should be in line to throw far deeper into the game on Saturday, giving Toronto a sizable advantage on the mound over New York’s Clarke Schmidt.

Of course, navigating the Yankees lineup is no easy task, especially with the addition of Juan Soto this offseason. However, the projected 3-4-5 hitters for New York all carry a strikeout rate of over 30 percent against Gausman.

That brings us to Toronto. Over the first week of the 2924 season, the Blue Jays bats have not fully woken up this season. However, they have a dangerous lineup that is capable of putting up a crooked number at any time.

In particular, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.375 ISO), Bo Bichette (.428 ISO), and Justin Turner (.600 ISO) have all showcased power against Schmidt over a limited sample size. 

The real question you need to ask yourself when handicapping this game between AL East rivals is: Does the Blue Jays cold start at the plate make up for the gap in talent on the mound?

I certainly don’t think so, which makes early F5 lines an incredible value at close to or at plus-money. Take the Blue Jays First Five Moneyline, which offers a push in the event of a tie game.

MLB Best Bet: Blue Jays F5 ML (+102)

Boston at LA Angels

9:38 p.m. ET

Garrett Whitlock struck out eight batters over five frames against the Seattle Mariners on March 31 after a strong showing during Spring Training.

The right-hander posted a 28.4 percent strikeout rate during the second half last season, and hit Over 5.5 strikeouts in the last four games in which he was used as a starting pitcher.

Whitlock will take on the Angels, who have mixed success against the 27-year-old, but they have struggled against changeups and sliders from a strikeout perspective. Whitlock’s arsenal is headlined by his sinker, but 50 percent of his pitches thrown are an even mix between the changeup and slider.

Beyond that, the Angels carry the third-worst strikeout rate in the American League versus right-handed pitching so far this season (26.5%). They also have the seventh-lowest walk rate against righties, which should help from a pitch count perspective.

Take the Over on Whitlock’s strikeout prop on Saturday.

MLB Best Bet: Garrett Whitlock Over 5.5 K (-105)

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