MLB Best Bets
Welcome to Sunday baseball, a magical day when almost every team plays a day game. We have a full 15-game slate to choose from, giving us plenty of options for MLB best bets and props.
Below are three of my MLB Best Bets for Sunday, April 7, but be sure to price shop for the best odds available to you at the time of viewing.
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My name is Matt Williams, and I am going to be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long.Â
Philadelphia at Washington
1:35 pm ET
Cristopher Sanchez will be a popular target for me all season long for walk props. In 2023, the 27-year-old hit the Under on 1.5 walks at an 84 percent clip.
On Sunday, Sanchez will take on the Washington Nationals, who carry the thirrd-lowest walk rate in the National League this season versus southpaws.
After tossing five innings of one-run ball against the Reds last week, Sanchez looks ready to continue where he left off in 2023. The left-hander struck out six and walked only one batter.
The primary issue with this prop is that I expect the price to move quite a bit. However, I would be happy to take it all the way up to -150 as a single wager. Otherwise, I would look to pair it with a high probability moneyline on Sunday (like Atlanta) to reduce the price.
MLB Best Bet: Cristopher Sanchez Under 1.5 BB (-125)
Arizona at Atlanta
1:35 pm ET
The Atlanta Braves are carrying an absurd 164 wRC+ this season against right-handed pitching with a .407 on-base percentage and .593 slugging percentage. This is after leading the majors in wRC+ versus righties last season (123) with a .223 ISO.
It could be a long day for Arizona’s Ryne Nelson, who lasted just 2 ⅔ innings against the Yankees in his 2024 debut after allowing four runs on five hits and four walks. Perhaps I should have said that it might be a short day for Nelson.
The 26-year-old throws nearly 55 percent fastballs, a pitch the Atlanta lineup excels at destroying. If Nelson misses up, the ball is going to sail out of the ballpark.
The total for this game is currently listed at 9.5, which is probably a touch low. However, it is a good indicator for the kind of offensive environment we should expect.
Bet the Braves to score more than 2.5 runs in the first five innings on Sunday.
MLB Best Bet: Braves Over 2.5 F5 Team Total (-130)
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
1:35 pm ET
The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday in a matchup between veteran southpaw Marco Gonzales and right-hander Dean Kremer.
Gonzales had a surprisingly strong outing to begin his 2024 season, limiting the Nationals to one run on four hits over five innings. Now, do I expect a repeat performance against Baltimore? No, not even a little bit.
The Orioles posted the 5th-highest wRC+ last season versus left-handed pitching, and their lineup ranks 11th in wRC+ this year overall.Â
Over the last three seasons, Gonzales has earned an expected ERA of 5.02, 4.59, and 5.27 with a single-digit K-BB ratio.
Meanwhile, the Pirates offense has been outstanding to start the year, batting .272 with a 12.6% walk rate. They should be able to put some runs on the board against the pedestrian Dean Kremer, who posted a 4.51 FIP last season with the 9th-worst HR/9 in the majors.
The total is currently listed at 8.5, but I project the final score to be closer to 9.5 total runs.
MLB Best Bet: Over 8.5 Runs (-105)
