MLB Starting Pitchers With Biggest Home/Road Differences
Besides all of the trends and systems that I put to use every day that are shared in the VSiN MLB Analytics Reports, there are always certain definitive sports betting data that I find myself recalling when handicapping specific teams or pitchers. This is just stuff that has stuck in my mind, either from winning or losing bets or from being intrigued by the sensationalism of the data. One of these data sets I find most intriguing is the starting pitchers whose home and road performance levels vary most greatly. I regularly make it a point to back or fade them appropriately in their starts because of it. Unfortunately, earlier this week, I forgot about Seattle’s Logan Gilbert being way better on the road, and I backed him in a losing bet versus the Royals in a home start. It’s actually a lot of the reason I’m sharing this article now.
I used to always call upon the home/road exploits of guys like Zack Greinke, who was famously known for being very tough to hit in front of the home folks. Jacob deGrom has demonstrated similar tendencies. At the same time, Greinke’s numbers were always terrible on the road, as we that of stud Madison Bumgarner late in his career. Of course, due to retirement, injury, or simply no longer being wanted anymore, we can no longer take regular advantage of these trends.
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There are many other active pitchers who have demonstrated equal or perhaps even more definitive variances when it comes to their home and road pitching performances. Some examples I am about to cite are well-known, while others might be new to you. I figured it was worth sharing this intriguing data, especially with the season being just over a month old. With that in mind, I dug into the database to study pitching location performances for all starting pitchers since the start of the 2022 season.
In all, 272 pitchers have started at least five games both at home and on the road over the last 2+ seasons. Below, I’ve listed the biggest won-lost records, betting units, and key stats variances from their home & road starts among currently active starting pitchers. Use these to take advantage of their upcoming starts so long as the trends continue.
MLB Starting Pitcher Biggest Betting Units Variations – Better at HOME
1. Zac Gallen (ARI): +18.42 units better at home
2. Brady Singer (KC): +15.34 units
3. Dakota Hudson (COL): +14.07 units
4. Dane Dunning (TEX): +13.46 units
5. Nick Lodolo (CIN): +11.32 units
MLB Starting Pitcher Biggest Betting Units Variations – Better on ROAD
1. Framber Valdez (HOU): +27.08 units better on road
2. Jack Flaherty (DET): +23.78 units
3. Logan Gilbert (SEA): +22.17 units
4. Kevin Gausman (TOR): +20.21 units
5. Andrew Heaney (TEX): +19.3 units
MLB Starting Pitcher Biggest Betting ROI Variations – Better at HOME
1. Ty Blach (COL): +106.3% better at home
2. Michael Grove (LAD): +74.3%
3. Nick Lodolo (CIN): +70.7%
4. Chris Sale (ATL): +70.4%
5. Dakota Hudson (COL): +62.4%
MLB Starting Pitcher Biggest Betting ROI Variations – Better on ROAD
1. Jack Flaherty (DET): +111.1% better on road
2. Jose Butto (NYM): +104.8%
3. Kutter Crawford (BOS): +87.6%
4. Walker Buehler (LAD): +87.2%
5. Matt Waldron (SD): +86%
MLB Starting Pitcher Biggest Team Won-Lost Percentage Variations – Better at HOME
1. Ty Blach (COL): +50% better at home
2. Michael Grove (LAD): +35.2%
3. Nick Lodolo (CIN): +35.2%
4. Chris Sale (ATL): +35.1%
5. Dakota Hudson (COL): +34.7%
MLB Starting Pitcher Biggest Team Won-Lost Percentage Variations – Better on ROAD
1. Jose Butto (NYM): +33.9% better on road
2. Jack Flaherty (DET): +29.6%
3. Matt Waldron (SD): +28.6%
4. Mike Soroka (CWS): 27.7%
5. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 27.3%
MLB Starting Pitcher Biggest ERA Variations – Better at HOME
1. Emerson Hancock (SEA): +5.2 better at home
2. Chris Paddack (MIN): +3.19
3. Frankie Montas (CIN): +2.84
4. Jose Butto (NYM): +2.55
5. Brady Singer (KC): +2.26
MLB Starting Pitcher Biggest ERA Variations – Better on ROAD
1. Ryan Weathers (MIA): +3.73 better on road
2. Ryne Nelson (ARI): +3.6
3. Quinn Priester (PIT) +3.55
4. Walker Buehler (LAD): +2.8
5. Jose Urena (TEX): +2.34
MLB Starting Pitcher Biggest WHIP Variations – Better at HOME
1. Emerson Hancock (SEA): +0.63 better at home
2. Ben Lively (CLE): +0.49
3. Jose Butto (NYM): +0.45
4. Alex Cobb (SF): +0.42
5. Brady Singer (KC): +0.41
MLB Starting Pitcher Biggest WHIP Variations – Better on ROAD
1. Ryne Nelson (ARI): +0.67 better on road
2. Walker Buehler (LAD): +0.67
3. Quinn Priester (PIT) +0.56
4. Ryan Weathers (MIA): +0.51
5. Nick Lodolo (TEX): +0.42
MLB Starting Pitcher Biggest Ks/9 innings Variations – Better at HOME
1. Chris Paddack (MIN): +6.1 K’s/9 more at home
2. Michael King (SD): +5.4
3. Reese Olson (DET): +4.1
4. Christopher Sanchez (PHI): +4.0
5. Kyle Harrison (SF): +3.8
MLB Starting Pitcher Biggest Ks/9 innings Variations – Better on ROAD
1. Ty Blach (COL): +3.5 K’s/9 more on road
2. Jordan Hicks (SF): +3.0
3. Josh Winckowski (BOS) +2.8
4. Taj Bradley (TB): +2.8
5. Kenta Maeda (DET): +2.4
As you handicap the pitchers on these lists in their upcoming starts, understand that most oddsmakers have a baseline power rating for each pitcher and don’t vary that too greatly depending on the location of the game. Follow these numbers closely to validate that. Make special note of those that are on multiple lists. Using these home-road dichotomy variations can give savvy bettors an edge.
