MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Astros vs. Dodgers odds, predictions and best bets
On Sunday, June 25th, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Houston Astros for a little Sunday Night Baseball. In addition to giving out best bets and player props this year, we’ll also regularly be diving into MLB’s Sunday night game of the week. We know there will be a lot of eyeballs on these matchups, and we want to make sure you know what you’re getting into in these games. So, keep reading to see how we’re playing this one!
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on June 25
Astros vs. Dodgers betting odds
Dodgers -130 / Total: 8
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Astros vs. Dodgers Side Analysis
While the Astros have lost seven of their last nine games, the Dodgers will be going for their fifth win in a row tonight. So, this is a meeting between two teams that are heading in opposite directions. However, it is worth noting that both starting pitchers in this game are coming off dicey performances. That makes things a bit harder to call when looking to pick tonight’s winner.
Hunter Brown has been superb for the Astros this season, as he is 6-4 with a 3.78 ERA and has 90 strikeouts over his 14 starts. Brown has some very impressive stuff and should be a huge part of this rotation for years to come. However, the righty gave up six earned runs on seven hits in just 5.2 innings of work against the New York Mets on Monday. And Brown has been pretty unreliable in night starts, in general. While he is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in three afternoon outings, Brown is just 4-4 with a 4.33 ERA in 11 evening starts. That means you might not get his best stuff tonight.
As for Tony Gonsolin, the righty is 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA on the year. People keep expecting him to start struggling, as he isn’t the most impressive pitcher to watch. But he has done nothing but produce for Los Angeles. And unlike Brown, Gonsolin is 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA in eight evening starts this year, while his struggle have come in day starts. But Gonsolin is also coming off a miserable outing, as he gave up seven earned on six hits in 5.2 innings against the San Francisco Giants last Sunday. With that in mind, the winner of this game could come down to which starter is able to shake it off and turn things around here.
If I had to make a call on the moneyline here, I’d ride with the Dodgers. In Gonsolin’s career, the Dodgers are 13-1 when playing as home favorites of -125 to -175 when he’s on the mound. He’s comfortable in these spots. And Los Angeles is 15-4 when playing at home with odds of -100 to -150 this year.
Astros vs. Dodgers Total Analysis
The over in this game seems like a decent play, with neither one of these starters coming in with much momentum. Brown also happens to be in a tough spot here, as he’s a young pitcher that is being thrown into a somewhat difficult road environment. The pressure will be on in a night game at Dodger Stadium, and Los Angeles happens to be sixth in the league in wRC+, SLG and OPS against right-handed pitching. So, any mistakes he makes could be detrimental for his team here.
As for Gonsolin, for as good as he can be, the over has now hit in three of his last four starts. And he’s not a player that pitches very deep in games, so the Dodgers bullpen is always capable of messing things up for him. Los Angeles has the fifth-highest bullpen ERA in baseball, which puts a lot of pressure on the Dodgers’ starters to perform at a high level.
It should also be noted that the over is 30-17 when Los Angeles has played in games with totals between 7 and 8.5 this season, and the average total runs scored in those games is 9.5 runs per game. The over is also 31-21 when Los Angeles has faced right-handed pitching this year, with the Dodgers averaging 5.7 runs per game in those contests.
Astros vs. Dodgers Best Bet
I’ll be honest and say that I don’t particularly love anything in this game, but I do think the over is the best play on the board. These are two teams that have some dangerous hitters scattered throughout the lineup, even with the Astros being extremely banged up right now. And neither one of these pitches can be counted on to go out there and shut down opponents on a nightly basis. Both have the potential to turn in duds.
Pick: Over 8 (-120)
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