Sunday Night Baseball: Braves vs. Mets
Citi Field will be the site of the final MLB game of the weekend, as the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets square off in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball time slot. It will be Bryce Elder for the visitors and Luis Severino for the home team with Atlanta looking for a sweep and to run their winning streak out to five games.
How to Watch Braves vs. Mets
Where: ESPN
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When: Sunday May 12, 7 p.m. ET
Braves vs. Mets MLB Odds
Atlanta Braves -112 // New York Mets -108
Total: 8 (-108/-112)
Braves vs. Mets Game Preview
It will be a cool night in Queens with temps in the low 50s, but it will be a clear night, as no rain chances are in the forecast. Cool weather certainly has an impact on the flight of the baseball, but it is still a bit jarring to see a total of 8 in a Braves game, especially with average to below average pitchers like Elder and Severino on the hump.
The first two games of this series have fallen 4-2 and 4-1 in favor of the Braves and last night’s game was actually a combined no-hitter until J.D. Martinez homered in the bottom of the ninth. It isn’t just the Mets offense that is struggling, though. The Braves rank sixth in baseball with a 111 wRC+, meaning they rank 11% above league average when adjusted for park factor and run environment. They led the league at 125 in 2023, but they are performing closer to their 2022 level this season.
“Struggling” is obviously a relative term here, as the Braves still have one of the league’s better offenses, but they aren’t performing up to their capabilities. That is especially true of late with a 65 wRC+ over the last two weeks, meaning they’ve performed at a level 35% below league average. The Mets are at 83 in that span.
Offense has been a little tougher to come by on the whole this season with home runs down across the league and a powerful and potent lineup like what Atlanta brings to the table has not been able to avoid such a fate. The Mets rank as a league average offense on the whole, but both teams have only hit 40 home runs and rank tied for 15th.
As far as tonight’s pitching matchup, Elder had allowed two runs on 12 hits in his first 12 innings of work before the Dodgers smashed him for seven runs over 3.1 innings in his last start on May 4. He gave up three homers in that outing. He comes in with a 5.28 ERA and a 6.35 FIP, as he walked four and only struck out two against Cleveland back on April 28 and pitched around eight hits for 6.2 scoreless innings on April 22.
Severino had a rough go last time out as well, as he walked six batters over five innings and allowed four runs to the Rays back on May 5. That was on the heels of a sterling one-run effort over eight innings against the Cubs six days prior. We’ve seen more good than bad from Sevy this season, as he comes in with a 2.93 ERA and a 3.38 FIP.
The strength of the Mets this season has been the bullpen, but they haven’t been able to get the ball to their primary relievers of late. Edwin Diaz hasn’t pitched since Monday. Adam Ottavino and Reed Garrett haven’t pitched since Tuesday. Irrespective of what happens between the starters here, I think manager Carlos Mendoza will want to shake the rust off of those guys.
I do like the Mets here and think they will need those top relievers. Elder has allowed a 46.9% Hard Hit% over his three starts, so his command and control have both been a problem. Severino has done a nice job limiting hard contact and has only allowed four Barrels for the season, including just one in his last four starts. That should allow the Mets to turn it over to their fine bullpen and have a great chance at the win.
Pick: Mets -108
Braves vs. Mets Player Props
Bryce Elder Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+105)
If I like the Mets, it makes sense that I like them to get some base hits in this one. Elder has walked eight guys in his last two starts, so my guess is that he’ll be focused on throwing the ball over the plate as much as possible and letting his defense do the work. He ranks in the Bottom 4% in xBA at .310 per Statcast and also the Bottom 8% in K% and Bottom 12% in Chase%. Hitters make a lot of contact with pitchers in the zone against him, so I think that lends itself well to the Mets doing the same.
