Sunday Night Baseball: Dodgers vs. Yankees
Sunday Night Baseball could be a World Series preview, as the Los Angeles Dodgers take on the New York Yankees. This is also a pitching matchup fit for a World Series game, as AL Rookie of the Year favorite Luis Gil takes on NL Cy Young hopeful Tyler Glasnow. It should be a great one this evening at Yankee Stadium.
How to Watch Dodgers vs. Yankees
Where: ESPN
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When: Sunday June 9, 7:10 p.m. ET
Dodgers vs. Yankees MLB Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers -125 / New York Yankees +105
Total: 7.5 (-118/-108)
Dodgers vs. Yankees Game Preview
The Dodgers are seeking a sweep following an 11-3 beatdown of the Bronx Bombers on Saturday. Los Angeles came into this series as the NL West leader by a good margin, but it sure seems like they’ve decided to use this series as a measuring stick. After losing four straight, including a sweep at home at the hands of the Reds, the Dodgers have won eight of 11.
The Yankees have been toe-to-toe with the Phillies for the best record in baseball all season long. They only have one three-game losing streak this season. A loss here would tie that April 14-16 stretch with Seth Lugo and the Royals looming on Monday to kick off a seven-game roadie.
However, the Yankees get to turn to Gil, who comes in with a 1.82 ERA, 2.68 xERA, and a 2.95 FIP in his 69.1 innings of work. He’s racked up 85 strikeouts across his 12 starts, but he can be a little bit erratic with 34 walks allowed. Over 44% of his plate appearances end in either a strikeout or a walk, but opposing hitters are only batting .128 and have a .178 BABIP when they do put a ball in play. He’s only allowed four homers and sits at +1600 for the AL Cy Young and -120 for the AL Rookie of the Year, which hasn’t gone to a true starting pitcher since Michael Fulmer won for the Tigers in 2016.
Glasnow, who is +650 for the NL Cy Young, rolls in with a 2.93 ERA, 2.40 xERA, and a 2.70 FIP in 80 innings of work across 13 starts. The 30-year-old is in his first season with the Dodgers and has maintained most of the same rates and numbers that he had over his Rays tenure. If the Dodgers get better health fortunes than Tampa Bay did, it should be a special season for Glasnow.
He has only allowed more than three runs in a start twice and has four games with double-digit strikeouts. Gil gave up five runs to the Brewers on April 26 and three runs to the Blue Jays on April 15, but hasn’t allowed more than that in any other start and hasn’t allowed more than one run in a start since that Milwaukee effort.
The Yankees do have the top offense in baseball by wRC+ against righties at 128, meaning they’ve performed 28% above league average when adjusted for park factor and the run environment. The Dodgers are fourth at 117, so both pitchers, despite a lot of success this season, will be tested here.
The Yankees have hit 20 more homers in 84 more plate appearances against righties, so we’ll see if that’s the difference tonight.
It’s a tough handicap, but Gil does have some clear regression signs that are not present in Glasnow’s profile, so I’d rather be on the Dodgers side tonight.
Pick: Dodgers -125
Dodgers vs. Yankees Player Props
Luis Gil Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (+140)
It is hard to ignore the big, plus-money price on this one. Gil has walked three or more in six of his 12 starts and now faces the best offense in baseball at drawing walks against righties. The Dodgers are a very selective and patient group and Gil ranks in the 12th percentile in BB% and the 33rd percentile in Chase%. Pitchers can definitely try to nibble with so many potent Dodgers hitters and this is the biggest start of Gil’s season to date.
Anthony Volpe Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+205)
Volpe leads the Yankees with 12 stolen bases and he’s only been caught three times. Between this season and last season, base stealers have been successful on 28 of 31 attempts against Glasnow. They are 9-for-11 this season after going 19-for-20 last season. Will Smith has done a great job of stopping runners, but Glasnow is pretty easy to run on, so this seems like a worthwhile endeavor at better than +200.
