Sunday Night Baseball: Mets vs. Yankees
The final installment of this chapter of the Subway Series is the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Week, as Mets vs. Yankees goes out to a national audience with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch in the Bronx. David Peterson and Max Fried meet in a battle of southpaw hurlers that are off to very good starts this season.
This is the rubber match between East Division leaders in their respective divisions, as the Yankees won 6-2 on Friday night and the Mets drew even with a 3-2 decision on Saturday.
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How to Watch Mets vs. Yankees
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday May 18, 7:10 p.m. ET
Mets vs. Yankees MLB Odds
New York Mets +136 // New York Yankees -162
Total: 9 (-108/-112)
Mets vs. Yankees Game Preview
The total of 9 was the first thing that jumped out to me about this game, as Peterson and Fried both have solid numbers. In fact, Fried has been one of the AL’s top pitchers thus far, posting a 1.11 ERA with a 3.59 xERA and a 2.86 FIP over his nine starts across 56.2 innings of work. The veteran left-hander has been a godsend for the Yankees rotation in light of Gerrit Cole’s injury and some of the other adversity that the group has faced.
Fried has a strong 52/13 K/BB ratio this season and has not been the losing pitcher of record yet, starting off his career in pinstripes at 6-0 to this point. Fried has not allowed more than two earned runs in a start and has only allowed seven earned runs total. He did give up four unearned runs in his first start of the season against the Brewers, but has rebounded extremely well.
There are some regression signs in the profile for Fried, simply because a 1.11 ERA over the course of the season is completely and utterly unsustainable, but he doesn’t project like a guy ready to fall off a cliff, especially with his 51.6% GB% and strong contact management numbers with an above average Hard Hit% and the same in the Barrel% department.
Peterson’s regression signs are more noticeable with a 3.05 ERA, but a 4.41 xERA. His 3.56 FIP, though, does suggest some sustainability in the profile. He’s a 55.8% GB% guy and has only allowed four homers in 44.1 innings over eight starts. He’s struck out 43 and walked 16 while allowing a 51.5% Hard Hit%. That’s why xERA isn’t a huge fan, as that metric has a lot to do with K%, BB%, and batted ball data. But, most of Peterson’s hard contact against has been on the ground and that’s a lot less detrimental than giving up line drives and fly balls that are well-struck.
Peterson’s game-by-game results have not been as impressive as Fried’s, though he’s only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his eight efforts. Despite the strong results for both pitchers, we do have the No. 1 and No. 4 offenses by wRC+ against lefties here, as the Yankees grade 50% better than league average and the Mets grade 20% better. By wOBA, the Yankees are first and the Mets are fifth.
So, that begs the question – do two well above average left-handers have a better chance against these two potent offenses or will the bats find a way to rule the day?
Well, one thing worth pointing out is that a lot of New York’s success comes from elevating the baseball, as they have the third-lowest GB% against lefties. The Mets are right in the middle. If Peterson can successfully navigate the lineup by limiting walks and killing worms, then that’s the recipe for success against the Bronx Bombers. Similarly, Fried’s ability to keep the ball on the ground and limit free passes – the Mets are second in BB% against LHP – should increase his chances for success.
We also have stiff winds blowing out to dead center here on a pretty seasonable night at Yankee Stadium with temps in the 70s and some humidity in the air. That’s another reason for the 9 total, as this was 8.5 with Over juice overnight.
Still, both bullpens are in good shape and I trust the batted ball profiles of these two starters that keep the ball on the ground and have allowed just seven combined homers in over 100 innings to keep the bats at bay.
Pick: Mets/Yankees Under 9 (-112)
Mets vs. Yankees Player Props
Max Fried Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
The Mets have the fourth-lowest K% against lefties and that’s even with drawing a lot of walks and working a lot of deep counts. They’ve got good bat-to-ball skills and that should play out against Fried here, who is a strike-thrower and forces guys to put it in play. Fried has gone Over this total in five of his nine starts, but four of those have been with 6.2 or more innings. I think he may have to work through some innings tonight with elevated pitch counts.
